Rookie Quarterbacks In Week 1 Creating Fantastic Betting Value

Patriots team walking around field

Jordan Sharp

Monday, September 5, 2016 3:40 PM GMT

Week 1’s projected starting QB have been changing a lot in the first week of the season and there are now going to be several QB starting their first career NFL regular season game. How can we handicap these games to make better NFL Picks in Week 1?

Browns vs. Eagles
With the news of the Sam Bradford injury coming so recently, the sportsbooks had pulled all of their NFL Odds for the game between the Browns and Eagles for a couple of days. Not only is this game going to be featuring Robert Griffin III (still only 26 years old) starting for the Browns, but also it looks as if Carson Wentz might be getting his first NFL start.

He is still recovering from taking a huge hit in his first preseason game, but reports out of Philly are that he has looked a lot better than Chase Daniel, the presumed backup. Even if Daniel starts, this could be a game where fading the Eagles is necessary.

If the Browns can continue their solid performances from the preseason, especially on offense, this might be a game to fade the Eagles for your free NFL pick. Even though the game is in Philadelphia, if the Browns are too big of an underdog, it might be worth an outright play, or even a teaser addition. The under could also be an intriguing play.

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Giants vs. Cowboys
We have known for some time now that Dak Prescott is going to be starting for the Cowboys for the first four to six weeks of the regular season and right now the NFL Odds have the Giants as just +1 underdogs in Week 1 in Dallas, with a total of 46 points.

Before Romo got hurt, the Cowboys were -3½ favorites with a total as high as 49½, but with the value now on the total dropping over three points, the over might be a great play.

The Prescott hype is big and while I’m not buying into him and Ezekiel Elliott being first ballot hall of famers before they even play a game, the upside they bring behind that offensive line is pretty intriguing.

We know with Ben McAdoo taking over that the Giants are going to throw the ball a lot. They basically have to without much of a running game, but if the Cowboys are putting up points, you have to think the Giants are going to be good for three touchdowns and a couple of field goals. This is making me think the over could be a fantastic value heading into Week 1 for this game.

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Patriots vs. Cardinals
The one game we have known will be started by a young quarterback for a while is the Patriots and Cardinals. Even though Jimmy Garoppolo is not a rookie, there is no telling how he will respond to becoming the team’s starting quarterback for Week 1 and the first four weeks of the season overall.

The Cardinals are a -6 favorite in the NFL betting odds, with a total of 47. We have seen some similar movement with this game’s total, which was close to 50 points before the news of Tom Brady’s suspension.

Now it is at 47, but the best play in this one is likely going to be just laying the points. Only -6 for the Cardinals is still a value, even though it obviously would have been nice to get that number when it was lower, but if Garoppolo falters on the road against this tough defense, the Cardinals’ offense is stacked. At this point, laying the points is likely the best way to go. 

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