Revisiting NFL Season Prop Odds as we Enter Week 11

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, November 13, 2014 6:57 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2014 6:57 PM GMT

Thank you, Mark Sanchez! Hit big on two recommendations on Sanchez in Bovada's Week 10 NFL props as he went 'over' 250.5 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns in Monday's Eagles win vs. Carolina. Here's look at a few of that site's interesting Week 11 specials.

Ryan Mallett total passing yards and touchdown passes: 210.5 and 1.5, respectively
Both yardage options are listed at -115 on the NFL odds boards, while the under 1.5 TDs is a heavy -200 betting favorite. Mallett, acquired early this season by Houston from New England for a late-round draft pick, will make his first NFL start Sunday at Cleveland. Coach Bill O'Brien decided to bench struggling Ryan Fitzpatrick with Houston having lost four of five. Mallett had a huge arm coming out of Arkansas and that's why the Pats took a third-round flier on him in the third round of the 2011 draft even though New England had a guy named Tom Brady entrenched at QB. We know nothing of Mallett other than NFL exhibition games. He has thrown a total of four regular-season passes, all in 2012 with the Patriots. Cleveland is No. 12 against the pass, allowing 232.0 yards per game. It is No. 3 in TDs allowed with just 12.

NFL free picks: 'Over' yards and 'under' TD throws. Cleveland allowed rookie Derek Carr to throw for 328 yards. A couple of weeks ago, a struggling Mike Glennon of Tampa Bay had 260 vs. the Browns. I don't see the 'over' TDs because the Texans will give the ball to Arian Foster near the goal line.

 

Aldon Smith total sacks in Week 11: .5; Smith sacks this season: 5.5
The 'over' is a -230 favorite on this week and a -130 favorite on NFL lines for the season. The 49ers got bad news this week when Pro Bowl inside linebacker Patrick Willis was put on season-ending injured reserve. However, the team also gets back perhaps the NFL's best pass-rushing outside linebacker in Smith. He had been suspended the first 10 weeks for his numerous off-field troubles. Since entering the league in 2011, Smith ranked second in the NFL with 42.0 regular season sacks at the start of this season. The former Missouri star has recorded 47.5 sacks in 51 career regular season and postseason games combined. That's amazing. You know Smith wants to make amends to his teammates with a big game Sunday at the Giants. New York has allowed 20 sacks, which is tied for 16th.

NFL free picks: 'Under' this week at even money on NFL odds but 'over' on season. I'm presuming the 49ers limit Smith's snaps at first to ensure full conditioning.

 

Will Aaron Rodgers throw an interception in a home regular-season game this year?
Yes is -250 at sportsbooks and no +170. Here is how amazing Rodgers has been at home: He is completing 74 of 108 passes (68.5 percent) for 15 touchdowns and nary a pick. Rodgers has only three interceptions on the road. Green Bay's remaining home schedule: this week vs. Philadelphia, Week 13 vs. New England, Week 14 vs. Atlanta, Week 17 vs. Detroit. That Lions defense is one of the best in the NFL. The others? Not great. All you need is a tipped pass, and given the Lions' knack for knocking balls down at the line, we are more than happy to add this option to our NFL picks.

NFL free pick: Yes.

 

Will the Saints lose another home game this season (including playoffs)?
Yes is -300 on Bovada NFL odds and no +200. New Orleans lost at home last week 27-24 in overtime to San Francisco after a winning Hail Mary touchdown from Drew Brees to Jimmy Graham was wiped out due to offensive pass interference on Graham. He did appear to push off, but the Niners' defensive back also probably took a bit of a dive. It was the Saints' first Superdome loss since the 2010 regular-season finale when Coach Sean Payton was on the sideline. So not counting the 2012 season when he was suspended. The Saints' remaining home schedule: this week vs. Cincinnati, Week 12 vs. Baltimore, Week 14 vs. Carolina, Week 16 vs. Atlanta. Then if New Orleans wins the NFC South, as I expect, a potentially tough wild-card home game against someone like Green Bay, Detroit, Seattle or San Francisco.

NFL free pick: That playoff disclaimer might be key here. But the Saints could also lose one of the next two weeks. Yes.

 

Will Tom Coughlin be the Giants' head coach Week 1 next season?
Will Marc Trestman be the Bears' head coach Week 1 next season?
No is -150 for Coughlin on NFL bets and -200 for Trestman. Both New York and Chicago are 3-6, with the Giants on a four-game skid and Bears dropping three in a row.

NFL free pick: No on Coughlin. He's the NFL's oldest coach and will be nudged into retirement. Take yes at +150 on Trestman. The Bears have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way and maybe can finish 8-8 to save his job. Trestman will be forced to fire every defensive coach, however. If the Bears lose this week at home to Minnesota, forget the yes. 

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