Redskins vs. Jets NFL Picks: Fade Offense & Back 'Under' 40.5

Steven Suarez

Saturday, October 17, 2015 12:31 AM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015 12:31 AM UTC

The Jets have featured one of the better defenses in the NFL so far this season, and they should be able to bottle up Kirk Cousins and the Redskins in Week 6. Let's examine the NFL odds on offer.

Odds Overview
The Jets are one of the larger favorites on the Week 6 NFL odds board, as they're favored by a touchdown at a lot of the top sportsbooks.

For the purposes of this article, however, we're going to be examining a possible total play, and right now the O/U is all the way down at 40.5 points. It's right there with Seattle/Carolina as the lowest total out there for this week's NFL action, which is no surprise given the great showings we've seen out of these two defenses this season, particuarly on the Jets' side of the equation.


New York Jets
It's been a nice start for the New York Jets this season, as they don't seem to be missing the now departed Rex Ryan very much. They've won three of their first four games, thanks in large part to a defense that's been as stout as any in the NFL.

Let's look at the numbers closer. New York is second in total defense, which measures the number of yards given up to opposing offenses. The Jets are allowing only 185.5 passing yards a content, which is the second-best mark in the league, and they've been excellent versus the run too; New York's coughing up 94.8 rushing yards per game, ranking them eighth in the NFL in that regard. 

It always helps to have a true shutdown corner in Darrelle Revis, but he's not the only one that's dominating defensively for the Jets. They should be licking their chops at the prospects of making life a living hell for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins this coming weekend.


Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins enter Week 6 having alternated losses and wins over their first five games. Last week they fell in overtime in a hard-fought 25-19 road loss to the then-undefeated Falcons.

Despite the 2-3 record, Washington's actually been a lot more competitive that we had anticipated them being. The Redskins are ranked 11th in total offense, as Cousins has had his moments this season, but they've done their best work defensively; as of now they're sixth in total defense, allowing 216.4 passing yards and 97.6 rushing yards a game. Not bad at all there.

In Week 6, Washington will again be without the services of starting tight end Jordan Reed, though there's a chance number one wideout DeSean Jackson will be able to return. He's currently questionable, and there's no doubt his return would be a boost heading into this showdown with the vaunted Jets defense. 


O/U Pick
Sure, it's a low total that's out there, but for good reason. The Redskins have been a lot better defensively than people expected, and we all know what the Jets bring to the table on that front.

With Revis and company locking things down in the secondary, we don't anticipate a mistake-prone Cousins finding much success in the passing game, and Washington's rushing attack hasn't inspired much confidence either. There's a reason why the Redskins have one of lowest team totals on the board for Week 6.

Meanwhile, New York has done some good things offensively, with Fitzpatrick steering the ship in a controlled fashion and the likes of Ivory, Marshall and Decker contributing nicely too. However, Washington's ranked in the top half of the league defensively and have been especially good against the run.

Whatever the case, we're on the lookout for a very low-scoring game this Sunday. The Jets will score some points, but we're not so sure about the Redskins in Week 6. So, we'll fade offense here and back the UNDER with our NFL picks despite the low O/U.

NFL Pick: UNDER 40.5 at 5Dimes

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