Redskins vs. Giants NFL Picks: New York's Injuries Will Help Washington Cover +4

Jason Lake

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 6:00 PM GMT

The sharps are all over Washington for Thursday night's NFL picks. That'll happen when you're dealing with the Keystone Kops of the NFL, the New York Giants.

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 21: 11-5 ATS; 0-1 ML (–1.00 units); 4-4 Total

We keep saying it: Buy low, sell high. But are we truly ready to hold our collective nose and put Washington in our NFL picks for Week 3? That appears to be the plan. Washington's got a date this Thursday (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFLN) with the New York Giants, and our consensus reports show a ton of early action on the D.C. Follies as 4-point road dogs – even though more people are betting on the Giants.

How much action? Over 65 percent of the money is landing on Washington's side, despite 57 percent of bettors preferring New York at press time. The average bet on the visitors: $233. The average bet on the G-Men: $92. Our surveys also show five $1000+ bets on Washington compared to just two for the Giants. All these numbers point to the underdogs being the sharp choice on our NFL odds board.

 

The Other Williams Wall
This wouldn't be the first time we've bet on Washington since Daniel Snyder bought the team in 1999 and started running it into the ground. There was that magical 2012 season, when Robert Griffin III burst onto the scene with two healthy legs and rattled off seven straight SU and ATS to reach the playoffs. And even when Griffin's been hurt, we've seen No. 2 QB Kirk Cousins weave some magic from time to time.

In retrospect, we wouldn't exactly call Cousins' Week 2 performance magical. He did a very good job in Sunday's 24-10 win over the St. Louis Rams (–3 away), connecting on 23 of his 27 passes with zero interceptions, but that only added up to 203 yards and one touchdown. The “real” star was the offensive line, which opened up enough holes for rookie RB Matt Jones to rumble for 123 yards and two TDs on 19 carries. As long as LT Trent Williams and his colleagues are healthy, which is never a given, Washington can win games by minimizing mistakes elsewhere, as Cousins did last week.

 

The Noise of Bombs
Compare and contrast to the Giants, who completely fouled the bed in each of their two games thus far. We touched on this in our opening odds report; Eli Manning cost his club with bad decisions late in both games, but it's not just poor clock management that's hurting Big Blue. It's also the absence of so many injured players.

These are all things that recreational bettors don't quite appreciate enough. You've got a quality offensive line (for now) in Washington, injuries in New York, and a very friendly +4 for the visiting team, all of which help our cause. The consensus feedback gives us the added support we need to make Washington our recommended pick for Thursday night. No clothespin required.

NFL Pick: Take Redskins +4 (–110) at BetOnline

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