Redskins vs. Giants NFL Picks: Low-Scoring Game Expected so Back 'Under' 44 on Thursday Night

Jason Lake

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 5:31 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 23, 2015 5:31 PM GMT

There's been a slight lean toward the OVER for Thursday night's game in East Rutherford. Can that be the right NFL pick when the New York Giants are involved?

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 23: 11-5 ATS; 0-1 ML (–1.00 units); 4-4 Total

Is there anything more beautiful than early autumn? It's still warm out, the leaves are starting to change color, and kids are enjoying those first few weeks of school before their spirits get crushed. Imagine driving through the forests of New Hampshire, or the Sierra-Nevada Mountains. Absolutely breathtaking.

Now take a sharp turn and head for the parking lots of East Rutherford. We're going to the New Meadowlands, where the New York Giants play host to Washington this Thursday night (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFLN). The weather will be gorgeous, but we can't promise the same about the football; these are two of the ugliest teams in the business, and they'll be challenged to reach that 44-point total on our NFL odds.

 

Defense Budget
That hasn't deterred people from betting the OVER. Our early consensus reports show a slim majority at 44 points, bumping up to 56 percent when the total dipped to 43.5 on Monday. There are a handful of books sticking with the lower total as we go to press, so shop around before you make your NFL picks.

We're a bit more inclined to take the UNDER, but really, there isn't much value to be had in general when the total is anywhere in the 40s, let alone the mid-40s. The best thing going right now for either team is Washington's defense; after two weeks, Football Outsiders has this unit ranked sixth overall in efficiency, delivering solid results against both the run and the pass. Washington has allowed just 27 points, and the UNDER is 2-0 thus far.

 

Polarizing
Offensively, Washington (No. 13 overall) and New York (No. 15) are in the top half of the league, but just barely. The Giants have left a lot of points on the field with their poor clock management, although they've consequently allowed both the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons to score game-winning touchdowns late in the fourth quarter. The totals have been split 1-1 after two weeks of Giants football. Head coach Tom Coughlin and QB Eli Manning usually don't make those kind of mistakes, so we shouldn't get too worked up about what happened in Weeks 1 and 2.

But we do have to acknowledge how vulnerable the Big Blue defense is without all those injured players. Football Outsiders has them ranked No. 25 overall; fortunately for Giants fans, their heroes improve to No. 11 against the run, and the run is where Washington focused its efforts in last week's 24-10 win over the St. Louis Rams (UNDER 41). We're going to suggest a tiny, tiny bet on the UNDER in this matchup, recognizing that Washington QB Kirk Cousins is capable of putting up some big numbers from time to time.

NFL Pick: Take UNDER 44 (–102) at 5Dimes

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