Recent History Suggests Betting Steelers & Chiefs to Go 'Under' 42.5 With Your NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Saturday, October 24, 2015 6:00 PM GMT

Let’s look at this Week 7 game with all of the key information, NFL odds, trends, significant Injuries—there are some—and other stuff and then try to come up with a solid Totals pick.

The Pittsburgh Steelers may or may not have the services of Steelers veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger for this Week 7 game on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City—for now (Thursday) the team is saying it’s proceeding with its one healthy QB, Landry Jones for the AFC interdivisional matchup—but the Steelers have a deep Roster and the Defense has been a pleasant surprise this season despite losing long-time Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau. So with 3 straight Unders in this series and potential choppy QB play, is backing the Under when the Total number is released the prescription here for our NFL picks

 

Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 7—Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

When: Sunday, October 25, 2015

Time: 1 p.m. EDT/10 a.m. PDT [Sunday 17:00]

TV: CBS, Directv 709, NFL RedZone

Satellite Radio Steelers: SiriusXM >Steelers: SIRI 127 (Internet 824)

Satellite Radio Chiefs: SiriusXM >Chiefs: SIRI 81 (Internet 815)

Weather: Mostly Sunny, High: 65°, Winds E 5-10 mph, 43% Relative Humidity

Current Low Point Spread: Steelers -2 (BetOnline)

Current High Point Spread*: *Point Spread Not Up In Most Sportsbooks (Roethlisberger)

Advanced Line: None (Roethlisberger, Michael Vick)

Total in Marketplace: 45½* (*Was Taken Down Thursday After Put Up at 44½; Atlantis)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The slumping Kansas City Chiefs (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU, 4-0-2 ATS) to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Sunday afternoon for this Week 7 AFC inter-divisional affair and because of the mystery surrounding the availability of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (MCL, Knee, Bone Bruise) the Point Spread here is still currently off the board now (Friday morning) at almost all sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and Offshore although the Steelers are 2-point favorites at BetOnline and SportsBetting (-105). Roethlisberger has reportedly been feeling better and making progress and wore a Knee Brace in a practice earlier this week, but it seems Pittsburgh Offensive Coordinator is aiming toward giving third-stringer and former Oklahoma product Landry Jones his first start. With all this uncertainty, the Point Spread, Total, Money Line and all other markets for this inter-divisional AFC game have been dormant with no line from the Advanced Line stage (last Wednesday) all the way up until today, Friday. And 9 days without some kind of Point Spread in these Modern Times means extreme caution. Why? Because the numerical difference with the Point Spread with Roethlisberger starting for the Steelers is a solid 7-8 points more than when a backup like Jones, or second-stringer Michael Vick—who is also nursing a Hamstring injury and missed practice on Thursday. Rumblings from the Pittsburgh camp have one WR saying that Jones actually knows the Steelers Playbook much better than Vick, and the way Jones looked in the 25-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh last Sunday was really a good sign, especially with backup QB Bruce Gradkowski (Ankle) on the Injured-Reserve List all season.

The Kansas City Chiefs (127 PF-159 PA, L5) and Head Coach Andy Reid (20-19 ATS) also have their share on Injury problems heading into this game, with RB Jamaal Charles Out for this crucial game while WR Jeremy Maclin (Concussion) is expecting to play after passing Concussion Protocol tests and expecting to practice today (Friday). With Charles out, Kansas City (500/1 NFL odds to win Super Bowl, William Hill) and QB Alex Smith will need the speedy Missouri product Maclin and others like TE Travis Kelce, RB Knile Davis and RB Charcandrick West to try to pick up the slack for the missing Charles. But despite the injuries to Roethlisberger and Charles, this game will likely be more defined by the Steelers (25/1 to win Super Bowl, William Hill) depth on Offense and the game’s site (Arrowhead Stadium). For purposes of focusing on the game’s Total from a potential 42-46 range—a number should be up sooner or later—here are the Final Scores from the L10 meetings in this series.

 

Totals Results in the L10 Meetings — Kansas City Chiefs-Pittsburgh Steelers
2014—@ Steelers 20 Chiefs 12
Total: 49½
Result: Under

2012—@ Steelers 16 Chiefs 13 (OT)
Total: 39½
Result: Under

2011—Steelers 13 @ Chiefs 9
Total: 41
Result: Under

2009—Chiefs 27 @ Steelers 24 (OT)
Total: 40
Result: Over

2006—@ Steelers 45 Chiefs 7
Total: 37
Result: Over

2003—@ Chiefs 41 Steelers 20
Total: 48
Result: Over

2001—Steelers 20 @ Chiefs 17 
Total: 35½
Result: Over

1999—Steelers 35 @ Chiefs 19
Total: 36½
Result: Over

1998—Steelers 20 @ Chiefs 13
Total: 35
Result: Under

1997—Steelers 13 @ Chiefs 10
Total: 42
Result: Under

 

Series Trends & Game Expectations
As you see from the Final Scores for the L10 meetings, the Total in this series went 5-5 ATS, with the L3 in a row all going Under the posted Total with an scant average of 27.67 ppg after a run of 5 straight Overs proceeded by 2 Unders (actually 3 if strung out to L11). And with Pittsburgh likely aiming to be tentative on Offense to a degree with Landry Jones likely in if usual starter Roethlisberger doesn’t play—one Injury report has him slated to return in mid-November—this game could be sluggish and maybe a little boring in the First Half. Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin (70-68-2 ATS) said on Tuesday that Pittsburgh would likely be going with Jones because “he’s the one that’s healthy,” so we can expect heavy doses of RB Le’Veon Bell and RB DeAngelo Williams and Jones trying to connect with WR Antonio Brown, WR Markus Wheaton, WR Martavis Bryant and TE Heath Miller when necessary.

At 1-5, quite obviously, the host Chiefs needs this game much more than the Steelers, and this is simply a matter of a good team playing a bad team and backing Pittsburgh (9-1-1 ATS the L11 overall)—as we analyzed here earlier at here earlier at Sportsbook Review—is advised.

The last meeting here at Arrowhead Stadium between these two AFC teams ended with the Steelers winning 13-9, falling well Under the posted Total of 41, while when these two met last year in the Steel City, the Steelers won 20-12 with that game also going well Under the silicone-injected Total of 49½ by 17½ points. So, depending on the number and when it comes up, the Under may be worth a look as the Under is 28-12 ATS L40 Chiefs games and the Under is also 10-2 ATS the L12 Steelers games in the month of October.

The Steelers final points have been adjusted down 3 points from a previous 27-16 prediction with thoughts that Jones will now more than likely be starting. Despite the desperation from the host Chiefs, they just don’t have the horses on Offense and this game should land around 40 points.

Predicted Final Score: Steelers 24 Chiefs 16

NFL Week 7 Totals Pick: Steelers-Chiefs Under 42.5 at Pinnacle

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