Four teams are left and only two will survive to face off in the desert. Let’s review the NFL odds and see if we can fatten our bankroll with our razor sharp NFL picks.
Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (32-31-2 -19.35 units)
The sugar is never as sweet as the lemon is bitter. I’m not sure if I just coined that or if I heard it before but I am quite certain someone, somewhere put if far more elegantly than that. Yet regardless how you put it, it sums up my feelings regarding my NFL picks last week.
Despite the fact that I went 4-2 and slashed 8.5 units from my deficit courtesy of burying the Colts +7 in NFL odds for five maximum play units and +255 (which skyrocketed to +355 at kickoff) for three units, the play that killed me was the overturned miraculous catch by Dez Bryant which would have sent the game over the posted total.
Oh, and by the way Angelo3718, who posted this at the bottom of my Colts column “ur crazy if u think the colts will win against Denver” to wit Guillermo Morales postgame retorted “angelo3718 jajajaja who is crazy jajajajaj”. Jajajaja indeed good sir!
Let’s hit our books big this weekend ladies and gents.
Packers vs. Seahawks
Worlds collided last week when the sharps and the squares joined hands for one brief moment of unity and buried the Seahawks like they had read tomorrow’s newspapers. It was a glorious confluence of wise guys and fan boys who drove the line from Seattle -9 ½ to as high as 13 ½ in NFL odds and the only ones who didn’t celebrate afterwards were the guys booking the action.
But this week they take on a far more dangerous opponent in the Green Bay Packers. The problem for the Packers is that their All-World quarterback is gimpy. Aaron Rodgers has the unique ability to drill footballs in tight spaces and keep defenses honest with his legs. We know the latter will not be a factor as Rodgers is dealing with a calf injury but that same injury could very well affect the former. Turning the hips, pushing off the plant foot and following through on the pivot foot are all basic mechanics required to complete even a rudimentary pass. To what degree Rodgers will be able to do so is the million dollar question and exactly why this side is a small unit wager. If Rodgers was completely healthy I would bet he could exploit Richard Sherman’s counterpart on the opposite side, Byron Maxwell who left last week’s game with shortness of breath and was subsequently replaced by Tharold Simon who would be lit up like a Christmas tree by a healthy Rodgers.
I am not going to manufacture enthusiasm for a game that could very well be predicated on the condition of a calf muscle. However, I do believe the ‘under’ has some merit with Seattle being the best defense versus a Green Bay offense that won’t be one-hundred percent.
Free NFL Pick: Under 47 (-115) for 4 units
Free NFL Pick: Green Bay +7 ½ for 1 unit at BookMaker
Colts vs. Patriots
Andrew Luck’s Colts have been throttled on three occasions by the New England Patriots with the most recent evisceration occurring on November 16th at the RCA Dome with the visitors walking out with a 42-20 victory in tow. The NFL odds on this one have the Patriots as -6 ½ point favorites at home in Foxboro. I find the fact that this game is being offered at under a touchdown a bit concerning but it will not deter me from allying with Joe Q. Public and backing the favored Patriots.
The Colts tore apart Aqib Talib last week but this week they face a special brand of special in Darrelle Revis coupled with the physical Brandon Browner and multifaceted Devin McCourty patrolling the secondary. Indianapolis will no doubt be focusing on shutting down the run after unknown Jonas Gray ran roughshod over the Colts’ defense to the tune of four TD’s and 201 yards back in November. If they bring their linebackers in and the corners cheat to stop the run look for Tom Terrific to throw short, long and in-between as they move the chains all afternoon.
I know this looks almost too easy based on New England’s previous three blowouts of the Colts but sometimes you just have to grab the low hanging fruit, forget about the contrarians and bury what you believe is the right side.
Free NFL Pick: New England -6 (-120) for 5 units at Pinnacle.com
The Woodman’s Corner (9-10 ATS, - 1.9 units)
Great minds think alike but apparently so too do degenerate minds as evidenced by the Woodman and Swinger tag-teaming the Colts (don’t linger too long on that repulsive picture) last week. This week the Woodman remains steadfast on his underdogs and is including Green Bay +7 1/2 in his NFL picks.