Ravens vs. Browns Betting Odds and Expert Pick – September 18 2016

Browns team gathered around in field

Tuesday, September 13, 2016 10:33 PM GMT

Surprise! Robert Griffin III got hurt and now the Browns are turning to Josh McCown in Week 2 against Ravens. Despite being +7 underdogs at home, with a total of 42.5, there is value to be had on the Browns for your NFL picks.

McCown an upgrade?
What has been lost in all of this Griffin talk has been that the Browns might be better with McCown under center. RG3 was pretty bad before getting hurt, going 12-for-26 with 190 yards and a pick. He did have 37 yards on the ground on five attempts, but as we know the final one of those rushing attempts ended in a broken shoulder.

McCown, on the other hand, was really good last season when he got the starts for Cleveland, including a 457 passing yards and the two-touchdown game against the Ravens in Baltimore just 11 months ago.

Since then both defenses have gotten worse and their offenses have gotten better. The score of that game was 33-30 in favor of Cleveland, so don’t forget about that when making your plays for the week.

 

Ravens Undervalued Offense
Speaking of offenses that might be undervalued, despite only scoring 13 points against Buffalo, the Ravens’ offense didn’t look bad. Joe Flacco completed passes to 10 different guys in route to a 23-for-34 line with 258 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked four times, but the Browns’ defense is nowhere near the Bills, so I expect an even better performance from Baltimore in this one.

Newly inked Mike Wallace burned a Bills’ DB for a 66-yards score in Week 1 and along with young guys like Kamar Aiken and Breshard Perriman and veterans Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta, this passing offense has some upside. Their running game is good enough to keep defenses honest, so even after winning a low-scoring game, the Ravens could easily put up 24-28 points this week in Cleveland.

Also of note, Flacco has thrown 19 touchdowns against the Browns in his career, the most he has thrown against any other team.

 

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
With all of this information comes a lot, but immediately the total looks primed for an over play. I talked about in the offseason how taking big home underdogs is almost always a good decision and with the possibility that the Browns’ offense will get better with McCown starting, the over and Browns +14 seems pretty inviting.

Right now at 5Dimes, they have the line at +7 1/2, so a seven-point teaser we could get the Browns at +14 ½ with the over at 35 ½, making for an excellent Week 2 wager.

The payout for such a bet at 5Dimes, a top rated sportsbooks, would be around -145, so while there is a bit of juice, considering you’re getting a two-touchdown home dog and an over at 35 1/2, it’s a solid one to two unit play this week.

However, for me in this one, I am just leaning towards a possible teaser play and putting my faith and cash behind the over for my Week 2 Raves vs. Browns prediction. The Browns’ defense isn’t stopping anyone and at home, I think the Ravens will give up some scores to the undervalued Browns’ offense. Take the over with a one to two unit play on this one.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 42½ -110 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes 
Season NFL Picks Record:  2-1

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