The Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots have both had so-so starts to the season, and each will look to improve to 2-1 on Sunday.
Baltimore capitalized on the momentum from its strong second half against the New York Jets by opening up a huge lead over the Miami Dolphins last week, only for that lead to disappear. The Ravens suddenly sit at 1-1, a record shared by a Patriots team that rebounded in a big way with a nice Week 2 road win against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Ravens vs. Patriots Game Info
Date: Sunday, Sept 25, 1 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Weather: 70 degrees, 15% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds
Ravens vs. Patriots Odds Analysis
This game has been heavily bet, but the line movement doesn’t match where the money’s come in.
The Ravens were initially 3-point favorites, and despite a short stint at -3.5, this line has now crashed back down to 2.5 points at most books, with some plus money available on the -3 at bet365.
Why’s that shocking? Because DraftKings is reporting 89% of the bets and 90% of the handle on the spread has come in on Baltimore. Yet the lin has moved in the Patriots' favor.
The total has also had some reverse splits with 37% of the bets on the Under, but a commanding 69% of the handle heading.
Ravens vs. Patriots Picks
- Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-110 via PointsBet) ★★★★
- Over/Under: Under 43.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★★
- Prop: Mac Jones Over 0.5 interceptions (-130 via DraftKings) ★★★★
Ravens vs. Patriots ATS Pick
Ravens -2.5 (-110)★★★★
Yeah, I know. Not great. You don’t want to be laying points with a road team, especially with this kind of line movement, but I do feel pretty good about Baltimore. Still, I can’t recommend five stars given the suspicious line movement.
I don’t think the Patirots have the facilities to stop the Ravens. Through two weeks, they rank 17th in DVOA against the run after struggling in that department last season. It’s true that they were 10th in rushing DVOA in 2021, but the Pats were third against the pass, displaying a clear preference as to what kind of team they want to play.
Baltimore happens to be 30th in rushing DVOA on offense, but that’s simply due to two lopsided matchups against teams a bit more vulnerable to the pass. I think this is where the script turns and one of the best rushing attacks in the last five years hits New England hard.
I also can’t stress enough here how important Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were to Miami last week. They hauled in short passes and burned Baltimore with their speed, and the Patriots simply don’t have this type of playmaking on offense, nor a good quarterback.
Ravens vs. Patriots O/U Pick
Under 43.5 (-107)★★★★
Run, run, run. It’s all the Ravens are going to do against this weak Patriots front seven, and it’s hard to envision Baltimore not grabbing control of this game early and running the rock down New England’s throat. Keep in mind, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson played out of his mind last week against a decent secondary, so he should be able to carve this one up.
It’s early, but we’re also seeing some patterns develop here with pace. The Patriots rank 26th in seconds per play and even when trailing by seven or more they’re still 21st. That makes me feel a lot better about things, and Baltimore lagging in 19th is preferable as well.
Ravens vs. Patriots Prop Pick
Jones Over 0.5 interceptions (-130) ★★★★
Jones has thrown an interception in each of his first two games, and Baltimore has picked off three passes to this point in the season. Jones also came away with a dastardly 50.7 passing grade at Pro Football Focus last week and had two “Turnover Worthy Plays” according to the service.
It was a poor game, and it was a total reversal of what we saw against the Dolphins, where he didn’t necessarily look bad, but he didn’t put the ball in a risky position.
Jones also saw his completion percentage drop to 60% in the loss, and I just think a defense this good will get to him at least once.
Where to Bet on Ravens vs. Patriots Picks
Ravens-Patriots picks made 9/22/2022 at 10:58 a.m. ET