Ravens Have Proven Unprofitable in Recent Weeks, Make NFL Picks on Chiefs

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 12:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2015 12:47 PM UTC

Kansas City Chiefs look to keep rolling in week 15. Can the beleaguered Baltimore Ravens do anything to stop the Chiefs? Find out as we preview this game and serve up our NFL picks.

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NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Against the Spread
Best Line Offered: -7 (+107) at Pinnacle


Kansas City Chiefs Look To Roll On
The Kansas City Chiefs are riding a seven-game winning streak into week 15 NFL betting, marking the second best winning streak (equalled by the Cardinals)  after the Carolina Panthers (13 straight in 2015 and 17 straight regular season wins going back to 2014). Most recently, the Chiefs are coming off a narrow 10-3 win over the Chargers at home. Admittedly, a narrower game than NFL Odds suggested it would – the Chiefs opened as the only double-digit favourites in week 14 NFL betting. That said, it was a win no matter how ugly it was and that propels them into week 15 as the deserved favourites on the road.

Advanced betting lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had the Chiefs as the 5-point road faves. In spite of failing to cover the hefty double-digit spread, the Chiefs opened this week as even greater road faves at -7.

Since opening on a touchdown advantage, the NFL betting line has been bet up to 7.5-points at most sportsbooks. Some books have gone even further, such as 5Dimes where the Chiefs are trading as the 8.5-point favourites.

The Chiefs seven-game winning streak is complemented by a 6-1 ATS mark. In fact, last week’s win over the Chargers marked their first misstep in spread betting markets. Overall, the Chiefs are 7-6 ATS with a 6.8-point winning margin and a plus 4.6-point differential on average against the spread.

Consider the six spreads they covered in a row before last week all ranged anywhere from 3-4.5-points and they have a plus 4.6-point differential on average against the spread, the current spreads trading on this game  of 7.5-to-8.5 fall right in their ball park.

To be fair, one of the main reasons why the Chiefs have seen their NFL line on this game improve so dramatically from the Advanced Line serving of -5 to -7.5 is down to the mess the Ravens are in right now.

The Seahawks just left AT&T Stadium reeling behind a 33-6 loss that has thrust their quarterback situation into further controversy. Fresh of the quarterback scarp pile Jimmy Clausen started for the Ravens against the Seahawks last week, marking the second time this season the backup was relegated to face the Legion of Doom. Yikes talk about bad luck. Earlier in the season, he led the Bears to a striking 26-0 loss to the Seahawks in relief for Jay Cutler. Last Sunday, he added a 33-6 loss to his resume.

As it is, it remains undecided (or unclear) whether Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen is going to start against the Kansas City Chiefs. If that’s not enough of a dilemma, the Ravens go an fuel the drama by apparently signing Ryan Mallet to the roster. If scraping the barrel of quarterbacks isn’t a sign of hitting rock bottom, what is?

Let’s hope Mallet sets his alarm clock this time or the Ravens organise a police escort to make sure traffic doesn’t get in his way of making it to the game on time.

Anyway, we digress. What matters is that the Ravens already are the worst in the NFL when it comes to performing in spread betting markets. They are 3-8-2 ATS with a 3.7-point losing margin and a negative 3.5-point differential against the spread. Whichever quarterback enters this game, it’s hard to see how he’ll instil confidence in public betting circles. The Ravens are simply not a profitable option on the NFL betting floor while the Chiefs have a proven winning track record both SU and ATS in the last seven weeks. Take the Chiefs on your NFL Picks as the road faves.

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