Ravens +3 is Best Bet vs. Dolphins in Defining AFC Match

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, December 2, 2014 4:45 PM GMT

The Dolphins and Ravens will do battle on Sunday in a huge game pertaining to AFC playoff implications. We’re providing you with an in depth NFL betting preview on this game which includes a free point-spread selection.

Key AFC Battle in South Florida
The Dolphins will be hosting the Ravens on Sunday at Sun Life Stadium in Miami with the opening kickoff set for 1:00 PM ET. According to the NFL odds at BetOnline, the Dolphins are an early 3.0 point favorite, and the posted total is 44.0. These teams met in Miami last season, and the Ravens prevailed 26-23 in addition to covering as a 3.0 point underdog. That game also went over the total of 43.0.

 

Major Playoff Implications
These teams are two of six teams in the AFC that currently have identical 7-5 records heading into this week’s action. If the season were to end today, the two AFC wild card berths would belong to the San Diego Chargers who are 8-4, and the Miami Dolphins who despite being 7-5 holds the tie breakers over the other five teams who are also 7-5. Needless to say the winner of this game will go a long way in improving their chances from being part of the postseason, but will still have a lot of work in front of them in order to do so. The loser won’t be eliminated, but the odds will certainly be stacked against them heading into the final 3-weeks of the regular season.

 

Rebounding from a disheartening Loss
The Baltimore Ravens let one slip away last week in a 34-33 home loss to the San Diego Chargers. They squandered a 30-20 lead late in the 4th quarter by allowing the Chargers to score a pair of touchdowns in the last 3:40 of the game, including the go ahead score with just 0:38 to play. On a positive note, the Ravens have shown amazing resiliency since John Harbaugh has taken over as their head coach. Baltimore has gone 24-6 since 11/1/2009 following a loss. However, on the down side of the equation is the fact they’ve gone only 1-4 SU&ATS since 12/22/2013 when installed as an underdog.

 

Controlling their own Destiny
The playoff chances for the Miami Dolphins at this point are real simple. If they win their remaining 4-games versus the Ravens, Patriots, Vikings, and Jets, they will be in the playoffs as either a wild card team or champions the AFC East. One loss in any of those games, and they will be thrown into the mix of uncertainty along with a plethora of other AFC playoff contenders. Since 10/6/2013, the Dolphins are just 3-4 SU&ATS as a home favorite. Miami has also gone a miserable 9-26 ATS since the start of the 2003 season as a non-division home favorite, and has lost 17 of those 35-games straight up. Miami is coming off a come from behind 16-13 road win over the New York Jets on Monday night. The Dolphins have gone an outstanding 6-0 SU&ATS since the start of last season following a road win, and won those games by an average of 11.5 points per contest.

 

Final Analysis
Recent history isn’t on the Dolphins side in this matchup. Since 11/11/2012, teams coming off a Monday night road win have gone a horrible 1-16 ATS in their following game, making the Dolphins not quite suitable for out NFL pick. Carrying that scenario one step further, if a team is an underdog of favorite of 7.0 or less in their next game following that Monday night road win, they’ve gone a pathetic 0-11 ATS during that same time frame, and lost 10 of those 11-games outright.

Free NFL Pick: Ravens +3.0 over the Dolphins at BetOnline