Rams vs. Vikings Week 9: Focusing on the Total & Making NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 6, 2015 5:58 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 6, 2015 5:58 PM GMT

The Vikings welcome the upstart Rams to TCF Bank Stadium Week 9. We examine scores in this NFC series, look at any relevant info and come up with logical NFL picks in what should be a close game.

What: NFL Week 9—St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings
Where: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
When: Sunday, November 8, 2015
Weather Forecast: Mainly Sunny, 57° High, Winds S at 15-25 mph, 54% Humidity
Current Point Spread Range: Vikings -2 to -2½ on NFL Odds Board
Lowest Total in Marketplace: 39½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: Almost an equal number of 39½’s and 40’s
Highest Total in Marketplace: 40 (Pinnacle)
Alternate Total: Under 37 +120 Over 37 -162 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 38 +105 Over 38 -133 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 39 -105 Over 39 -125 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 40 -115 Over 40 -105 (bet365)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The St. Louis Rams (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) and stud Rookie (Georgia) RB Todd Gurley head to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis this Sunday afternoon in Week 9 to face Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS) in a big NFC inter-divisional game and extremely important one for both sides who could snag Wild Card berths in the NFC if all goes right.

The Rams could definitely go in here and go Crazy and pull off the upset with the game meaning so much to them living in the rugged NFC West. St. Louis (135 PF-125 PA) clobbered the 49ers at the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday in Week 7 action as Nick Foles (14/23, 191 yards, TD) didn’t have to do too much as electric RB Gurley completely ran wild once again, WR Tavon Austin (4 Receptions, 98 yards, TD, 24.5 ypc) also had another nice day and the St. Louis Defense (Tied for #6 in TO margin, +4) was brilliant as usual. And the Vikings (147 PF-122 PA) also won on Sunday in Week 8 action, defeating the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, 23-20 as Vikings K Blair Walsh booted a 36-yard FG as time expired for the Win and RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 103 yards in the Windy City. It seems these two teams are very even despite the Vikings having the better name in the public this season and in past seasons. But being one of the few teams bumping Purple—what up Ravens?—bears its weight in Responsibility. To analyze the Total (40, Pinnacle) in this game, here are the L10 Final Scores in this NFC series.

 

Totals Results L10 Meetings Minnesota Vikings vs. St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams
2014—Vikings 34 @ Rams 6 Total: 43½ Result: Under
2012—Vikings 36 @ Rams 22 Total: 39½ Result: Over
2009—Vikings 38 @ Rams 10 Total: 40½ Result: Over
2006—Rams 41 @ Vikings 21 (Hubert H. Humphrey Dome, Minneapolis) Total: 43½ Result: Over
2005—@ Vikings 27 Rams 13 (Hubert H. Humphrey Dome, Minneapolis) Total: 45 Result: Under
2003—@ Rams 48 Rams 17 Total: 51½ Result: Over
2000—@ Rams 40 Vikings 29 (Trans World Dome, St. Louis) Total: 58 Result: Over
2000—@ Rams 49 Vikings 37 (Trans World Dome, St. Louis; NFC Finals) Total: 54 Result: Over
1998—Vikings 38 @ Rams 31 (Trans World Dome, St. Louis) Total: 44½ Result: Over
1992—Vikings 31 @ Los Angeles Rams 17 (Anaheim Stadium, Anaheim) Total: 37 Result: Over

 

Recent Series Trends, Potential Affect of Westher and Best Totals Betting Approach
As you can see young ‘uns, the Rams used to play in Los Angeles and my gut tells me they may be back there before we know it. And the series Totals Trend here has been a really strong one for the Over (8-2 l10) although this is sort of Ancient History in the handicapping world as a tool for this game with the 10-year look spanning 33 years, having these two teams in three different cities and playing in four different venues, once in the NFC Finals. So best to toss this silly crap out the window and think about what these teams are like in 2015 and what their Game Plans will be. Can you guess the Rams’? Bingo. Hand the ball to that young buck out of Georgia (Gurley) and see if he can’t soften up the Vikings Defense a little. When these two teams met last, the Vikings beat the Rams last season in Week 1, 34-6 in St. Louis and covered as 3-point dogs. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Rams but the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS the L5 here against St. Louis in Minnesota. As far as Totals Trends, the Over is 10-3 the L13 Vikings games in November; the Over is 11-2 the L13 Vikings games played in Week 9; and, the Under 7-1 ATS the L8 Vikings games overall. Now that last Trend one is relevant as it touches on the Here and the Now and shows Minnesota usually plays in tight, low-scoring tight affairs so far this Regular Season. And with the Rams and just manage-the-game QB Nick Foles in town, this one could be tight and St. Louis could very well leave the Land of 10,000 Lakes with a Win here on Sunday. Also a really strong and recent Trend: Vikings Unders are 6-1 ATS this year while Rams Unders are 5-2 and these two sort of play a different, more old-fashioned style of football compared to many of the current throw-throw-throw teams in the National Football League.

Even though the forecasted temperatures aren’t looking to be too low in Minneapolis on Sunday—with a decent-sized Warm Front currently affecting the eastern half of the US—all of these players are going from playing games with temperatures (Fahrenheit) in the 60’s, 70s, and 80’s (late Summer) now having to do so in the 40’s, 50’s and 60’s (Fall) and that makes a significant difference in Passing, Catching and Kicking the old Football. So this is a slightly good thing for the Under as is the fact the Rams are a Dome-Home team and used to mall-like 72-degree conditions when playing in St. Louis where the Turf spontaneously combusts and there is a massive concrete patch on the sidelines where RB’s and WR’s meet untimely deaths like to the 49ers Reggie Bush did last Sunday in the Gateway City. This is hyperbole. Sort of. Anyway, this one should have no more than 5 TDs and a bunch of FGs and FG attempts and go down to the wire. With Gurley and WR Tavon Austin and a decent Defense, the Rams should be able to hang here and there could be much nothingness in the 1st Half. QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Adrian Peterson and the Vikings have had a really nice run so far and are finding ways to win games, but are still a considerable distance from the consistently good teams in the NFL. The 1st Quarter Under may be worth an NFL pick here too.

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Rams 20 Vikings 17

NFL WEEK 9 TOTALS PICK: Rams-Vikings Under 40 (BetOnline)

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