Rams vs. Colts Betting Preview: NFL PIcks

Ross Benjamin

Friday, November 8, 2013 10:43 PM GMT

The Indianapolis Colts host the St. Louis Rams on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. Let's get you readers a winning football free pick to get this party started!

NFL Preview

Sunday 11/10/2013

St. Louis Rams (3-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-2) 1:00 PM ET

According to NFL betting odds the Colts are a 9.0-point favorite and the posted total is 44.0. These two teams last met on 10/25/2009 with Indianapolis winning at home 42-6. 

Sam Bradford Injury a Killer 

The Rams have dropped their last 3-games in a row after winning at Houston 38-13 on October 13th. Unfortunately the following week after the Houston game starting quarterback Sam Bradford blew out his knee at Carolina, and was lost for the season. Prior to that injury Bradford was enjoying a terrific start to the year throwing for 14 touchdown passes versus just 4 interceptions. He was replaced by veteran backup Kellen Clemens. Clemens has been less than impressive since taking over, completing just 52.9% of his passes, for just 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. 

Emergence of a Running Back

After having virtually no running game through the first 7 games of the season the Rams may have found their answer in their last 2 contests. In those 2-games rookie running back Zac Stacy from Vanderbilt has emerged. In the losses versus Tennessee and Seattle the last 2 weeks, Stacy has rushed for 261 yards in addition to averaging 4.9 yards per carry. The diminutive 5’8 and 216 pound Stacy has proven he can handle a heavy load by carrying the ball 53 times in those 2 contests.

Inside the Rams Numbers

  • The Rams have gone over the total in 5 of their last 6-games.
  • The Rams have gone under the total in their last 6 non-division road games versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .428 or better. Those 6-games have averaged a combined total score of 33.8 points.
  • The Rams have gone under the total in 23 of their last 31 road games versus an opponent with a winning home record on the season.
  • The Rams are 30th in the NFL averaging 310.3 yards per game total offense.
  • The Rams have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10-games versus an opponent with a winning record.

Possible Letdown for Colts

Indianapolis comes off a stirring come from behind victory for our NFL picks last Sunday night in Houston winning 27-24. The Colts were able to overcome a 21-3 halftime deficit to capture their 6th win of the season.Despite struggling for most of the night, Andrew Luck caught fire in the 4th quarter to finish with 271 yards in the air and 3 touchdown passes. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton had a huge game with 7-catches for 121-yards and 3 touchdowns. The question now becomes how mentally sharp the Colts will be versus a struggling Rams team this week? After all, in addition to the come from behind win last week, the game before they handed the seemingly invincible Denver Broncos their only loss of the season to this point.

Be sure to check the Week 10 Betting Odds Report daily~

[gameodds]16/227005/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Inside the Colts Numbers

  • The Colts have gone under the total in their last 9 home games when the total is 46.5 or less, and they’re facing an opponent with at least 1 loss on the season. The average combined total score in those 9-games was 36.6 points.
  • The Colts have gone under the total in 11 of their last 15-games versus an opponent with a losing record.
  • The Colts have gone under the total in 11 of their last 14-games after allowing 250 yards or more passing in their previous game.
  •   The Colts have gone under the total in 23 of their last 34 home games
  • The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games
  • The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10-games overall versus an opponent with a losing record.

NFL Totals Super Angle

Any home team with a total of 44.0 to 49.0 playing in games 8 through 13 of the season, and they’re coming off a road game in which both teams scored 24-points or more has seen 31 of those 40-games (77.5%) go under the total since the start of the 2003 season.

Free Pick: Rams/Colts to go under the total of 44.0