Raiders 2018 NFL Schedule Betting Breakdown: Gruden Catches a Break

gruden

Jay Pryce

Sunday, April 22, 2018 5:53 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 22, 2018 5:53 PM UTC

Jon Gruden ditched his television gig and is back as coach of the Raiders. Check out the team's schedule along with our favorite spots to back and fade the Raiders against the spread.

NFL schedules are based on formulas. Still, Jon Gruden's return as a head coach could hardly have been made any easier, as Oakland owns the third-easiest schedule in the league.

Below you will find the Raiders’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.

2017 SU Record: 6-10 (-4.5 avg. margin)

2017 ATS Record: 5-9-2 (-4.3 avg. margin)

2017 Average Line: 0.2

2017 Win Total: 9.5 (+100)

2018 Win Total 5Dimes (pre-schedule): 8 (-245)

2018 Strength of Schedule: T-29, 121-135 (.473)

Three Games to Back ATS

Browns, Week 4; Colts, Week 8

Outside of his division, quarterback Derek Carr has proven a consistently strong bet versus the rest of the AFC. The Raiders are 14-8 SU and 16-5-1 ATS all-time against conference foes outside of the West when the three-time Pro Bowler attempts more than 20 passes in a game. As betting favorites, they are a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in this spot, winning by 9.6 points per game. Advanced lines will see Oakland laying points in home dates against the Browns and Colts.

Steelers, Week 14

The Steelers may be a short-priced favorite in their Week 14 visit depending on how the season plays out, but regardless on what side of the fence the number lands, don’t be too bullish on the visitors. Pittsburgh owns a lousy ATS record as road chalk behind quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in conference contests anyways.

Three Games to Fade ATS

Rams, Week 1

The Raiders slipped to 2.5-point underdogs after oddsmakers opened their Week 1 Monday night clash with the Rams a pick ‘em on the NFL odds board. Why the adjustment? For one, Carr has not been able to lead Oakland to much success against elite competition. The fifth-year pro is 4-11 SU and 5-9-1 ATS as a starter facing opponents that own an average scoring margin greater than 6.5 points the prior year. The Raiders’ offense slumps to 16.9 points per game under these conditions. L.A. ranked fourth in the league last season with an 8.0 difference.

Chiefs, Week 13; @Chiefs, Week 17

The Raiders are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS against their long-time rivals since Andy Reid took over as coach in Kansas City. Most matchups haven’t been close. Oakland has lost by more than a touchdown seven times. The one cause for concern is that Gruden is 4-1 SU and ATS head-to-head against Reid, holding the one-time Eagles coach to 21 points or fewer in each matchup. The last meeting was more than a decade ago, and until the trend changes, no reason to buck it.

Trap Game Potential

Bengals, Week 15

The Raiders travel to Cincinnati in Week 15 on the heels of a Sunday night brawl with the always-physical Steelers, while also looking ahead to two divisional clashes to close out the regular season against the Broncos and Chiefs. Pass, It’s the Bengals or bust for our money.

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