Quarterback Prop Picks for NFL Week 5

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, October 2, 2014 5:34 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2014 5:34 PM UTC

We should see history made on Sunday as Denver's Peyton Manning will become the second player ever with 500 career touchdown passes -- all Manning needs is one vs. Arizona. That is one of Bovada's Week 5 NFL special props we will examine here. 

First, recapping the quarterback specials touched upon on Week 4. Jacksonville's Blake Bortles was very good to us as we recommended 'over' 250.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdown throws and .5 interceptions against San Diego in his first NFL start. He threw for 254 yards, one score and two interceptions, so a winner on two of the three. For fellow rookie Teddy Bridgewater of Minnesota, the recommendations were 'over' 220.5 passing yards, 'under' 1.5 TD passes and 'over' .5 interceptions. Once again, 2-for-3 as Bridgewater threw for 317 yards with zero picks or TDs against Atlanta.

SBR Offers Free Week 5 NFL Picks!

Who Will Catch Peyton Manning's 500th Career TD Pass?
Obviously this is a bit of a crapshoot but here are your options: Julius Thomas (2/1), Demaryius Thomas (7/2), Emmanuel Sanders (7/2), Wes Welker (6/1), Jacob Tamme (7/1), Montee Ball (15/2) and any other player (10/1). Manning has thrown eight TDs so far and Julius Thomas has five, Tamme two and Demaryius Thomas one. The Cardinals have a great secondary and a shutdown cornerback in Patrick Peterson. I am assuming he's on Demaryius Thomas. Thus I don't like him.

NFL Free Pick: Welker. He made his season debut in Denver's last game before the bye (due to suspension) and had nine targets and six catches. Manning loves him on those underneath routes.


'Over/Under' 240.5 Passing Yards for Buffalo's Kyle Orton and/or 1.5 Touchdown Passes
The yard options are both -115 and under 1.5 TDs is a -200 favorite on NFL odds. Orton looks to be the only new starting QB in the NFL this week. The Bills decided to bench regressing second-year QB E.J. Manuel following back-to-back ugly losses. Manuel, the team's questionable first-round pick in 2013, is 6-8 in 14 career starts. An interesting stat: In the past seven years, no quarterback selected in the first round has recovered from a benching to again become a full-time NFL starter. Orton has always been a serviceable QB. He started the season finale vs. the Eagles last year for Dallas -- with Tony Romo injured -- and played pretty well. Orton faces the Lions, who are No. 2 against the pass (187.0 ypg) and have given up only four TD throws. Buffalo is a run-first team. The Lions know this, however. They also likely jump to a fairly sizable lead at home, forcing Orton to throw more.

NFL Free Pick: 'over' yards, 'under' TDs.


Will Michael Vick Replace Geno Smith in Week 5 for at least One Possession?
No is -200 and yes +150 on NFL odds. This can't be for injury reasons. The biggest quarterback controversy -- because everything is blown out of proportion is in New York -- is with the Jets. Once again this season, Smith can't stop turning the ball over (seven times) and New York enters Sunday's game at San Diego on a three-game skid. The New York crowd was chanting Vick's name in last Sunday's loss to Detroit. There was a players-only meeting Monday, never a good thing. Vick has played only six snaps in a situational role thus far. Rex Ryan probably has to make a move here if the Jets are down two touchdowns at the half and Smith has turned it over once or twice. Ryan's job is definitely in jeopardy if New York falls to 1-4 with games up next against Denver and New England. The Bolts have been a surprisingly good defensive team.

NFL Free Pick: Yes.


'Over/Under' Completion Percentage this Season for Jacksonville's Bortles: 62
Both options are -115. This prop is in the wake of Bortles completing 29 of 37 last week in his starting debut against the Chargers. That 78.4 percent is the best ever by a player making his first NFL start with a minimum of 30 pass attempts. On the season, Bortles is at 70.5 percent. A lot of people are comparing him with Ben Roethlisberger. As a rookie, Big Ben's season percentage was 66.4. More recent guys in their rookie year: Andrew Luck, 54.1 percent; Robert Griffin III, 65.6 percent; Russell Wilson, 64.1 percent; the Jets' Smith, 55.8 percent. Last season, only 13 full-time starters in the NFL finished better than 62 percent.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under.' Bortles is clearly a talent, but he's raw and playing on a very bad team. His receiving corps won't be helping him much.

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