Quarterback Prop Picks Heading into Week 3

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 18, 2014 8:37 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 18, 2014 8:37 PM UTC

Once again this week, the Bovada sportsbook is offering a handful of special props on quarterbacks. Some will be resolved Sunday, but a few might take all season. Here are my recommendations for your NFL picks.

To recap last week, I recommended 'over' .5 turnovers for Philly's Nick Foles at the Colts. He was picked off so that paid at -200. I also hit on 'over' 220.5 passing yards for Carolina's Cam Newton vs. Detroit (he had 281) and 'under' 27.5 rushing yards (19). So a good start.


'Over/Under' 240.5 Passing Yards for Washington's Kirk Cousins or 'Over/Under' 1.5 TD passes
The 'over' is a -125 favorite on the yards and the 'over' is a -150 favorite on the TDs. Of course the biggest injury in the NFL in Week 2 was the Redskins losing Robert Griffin III to a dislocated ankle that might end his season. RGIII will again fail to play all 16 regular-season games and there's no reason to think he ever will. Some experts love Cousins and think he's a better fit in Coach Jay Gruden's offense (Gruden apparently does). Others believe Cousins is overrated and can't old RGIII's jock. Cousins looked great in Griffin's place last week vs. Jacksonville, throwing for 250 yards and two TDs. He has never faced the Eagles, this week's opponent. Philly ranks No. 11 in passing yards allowed at 207.0 per game. It has allowed five TD passes, tied for the most in the NFL. Getting 250 yards and two touchdowns shouldn't be that hard. Cousins is better than Jacksonville's Chad Henne (plus has more weapons) and Henne had 266 yards and two scores in the opener vs. Philly.
NFL Pick: 'over' on both for your NFL picks.


What Will Cousins' Role be Week 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
You have four options here. Starting for Washington is +125. The backup for Washington is at +150 on the NFL odds. A starter for any other NFL team is +300. A backup for any other NFL team is +400. The Redskins were shopping Cousins around this past offseason but didn't get what they wanted, which was apparently at least a second-round pick. Needless to say, Cousins' value could skyrocket or plummet over the next two months until Griffin returns (if he does). I'm surprised that starting for the Redskins is a favorite. RGIII is still the face of the franchise and owner Dan Snyder loves him. The Skins would certainly deal Cousins for a first-round pick, but I'm not sure any team pays that.
NFL Pick: Backup for Washington.


Will Griffin III Start Another Game this Season?
Yes is even money and no at -140. His ankle wasn't fractured so most timetables say he could return in 6-8 weeks. You aren't supposed to lose your job because of injury.
NFL Pick: yes.


How Many Snaps Will Cleveland's Johnny Manziel Take in Week 3: 'Over/Under' 1.5
Both are at -120. Johnny Football saw his first NFL action last week in the win over New Orleans. He got a grand total of three plays in the third quarter, two handoffs that resulted in zero net yards and an incomplete pass. Manziel ran all his plays out of the pistol, and he ran the read option on all of them. Starting QB Brian Hoyer admitted he was a bit ticked off that he had to share even that many. The Browns aren't close to starting Manziel yet, but they want teams at least preparing for his running ability. Cleveland hosts Baltimore this week. If the Browns get well ahead, there is probably no reason to play Manziel. I don't think the Browns will be way ahead. Plus if Hoyer suffers even a minor injury you win here.
NFL Pick: 'over' at Bovada


Peyton Manning vs. Russell Wilson Super Bowl Rematch Props
Manning is -50.5 yards vs. Wilson, -200 to throw more touchdown passes (Wilson +160) and -150 to have more interceptions (Wilson +120). In February's Super Bowl, Manning threw for 280 yards with one touchdown and two picks. Wilson threw for 206 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Manning threw for 269 yards in Week 1 and 242 in Week 2 and had three TD passes and no interceptions in each. He is now three TD passes shy of 500 career. Wilson has thrown for 191 yards and 202 with two TD passes and no interceptions in the first two games.

I have a feeling that Manning is really, really going to be motivated to have a big game after being embarrassed by that Seahawks defense in the Super Bowl. He also gets back Wes Welker this week. Wilson rarely puts up big numbers in that conservative offense but also rarely makes mistakes.
NFL Pick: Hate to go chalk, but Manning in all.

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