Public Betting Action Shifting Super Bowl Odds

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, January 20, 2015 4:25 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2015 4:25 PM UTC

After another wild week of NFL action, the Super Bowl is finally set, and the NFL Odds are there for the taking. Right now most sportsbooks have the Patriots as a -1 favorite, or the NFL Picks are at a PK. Either way, let’s look and see where the public might be in Super Bowl 49.

Early line movement
In the last 24 hours, the Super Bowl 49 NFL Odds have moved some, and it could be an indication where some of the early sharp money is going. This will give us a better idea on whether the public will follow the line movement, or go with the defending champs. After opening at a PK virtually everywhere, the line has moved in favor of the Patriots at books like You Wager and Intertops. This can only mean that some substantial money has come in early on the Patriots. Even books that still have the line at a PK sometimes have more chalk on the Patriots, and in just the last few minutes here late on Tuesday morning, Bovada has chanced their line to -2 (+100) in favor of New England.

If these obvious trends continue, you can bet that the public might jump on the Patriots bandwagon. If that happens we could legitimately see the line shoot up even higher by the beginning of next week. However when taking a look at the SBR Consensus Data, it tells an entirely different story.

Although it’s just an estimate, according to our data, the Seahawks have taken seven out of every ten dollars wagered so far on this game. However, the Patriots are the ones taking the most wagers, which tells a complete opposite story from the line movement. If this is the case, then the public looks like they are on the Patriots, while the sharps are once again taking points with the undervalued Seahawks in the Super Bowl.


Where is the public?
I think the early week Consensus Data will even up some before next week, but the question still remains; where is the public in this one. It may be a little too early to tell, but it appears as if they may be settling their early week money on the Patriots. That shouldn’t be enough to move the line as much as it had, so there has to be some sharp money on the Pats as well, but we may have another scenario this season where the Seahawks are way too undervalued against a flashier offensive team.

If this is the case the Seahawks may be a great NFL pick once again here in the Super Bowl. They played their worst three questers of the season last week and still managed a win, and that may still be fresh in the public’s mind. However it’s also fresh in everyone’s mind, because if they play like that against the Patriots, Tom Brady is going to beat them by 20 points. However if that’s the worst the Seahawks can play, I see no reason to think they won’t show up with a force for the Super Bowl in less than two weeks. Look for the public to potentially back the Patriots, and for the Hawks to be undervalued once again.

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