Public Action Creating New Value for Divisional Round NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, January 7, 2015 1:16 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2015 1:16 PM UTC

I will look at the NFL odds which have attracted the most sports picks and share my opinion as a NFL football handicapper expert and see where the public might be right or wrong.

I will look at the NFL odds and percentages which have attracted the most sports picks and share my opinion as a NFL football handicapper expert and see where the public might be right or wrong.


Dallas Total and Money Line is Where the Action is at the Frozen Tundra
Though the sportsbooks opening total of 53 has only budged slightly lower to 52.5 at less than half of the wagering outlets I checked, over 75 percent of wagers placed are on the OVER.

The betting public is rightly enamored with Green Bay scoring 39.1 points per game at Lambeau Field this season where they are 7-1 OVER on the year. Also, the public at large is still not certain what to make of the Cowboys defense, which has improved in allowing just 44 points the last few weeks, but prior to this their previous five true away games they have surrendered 27.4 PPG. Which Dallas defense shows up try and slow down Aaron Rodgers?

Check Out Another Capper's Take on Cowboys vs. Packers

The Green Bay defense is markedly improved since Clay Mathews moved inside, but there is still a sense of uncertainty about the group especially against a team that has an offensive line like Dallas and all those weapons.

The Cowboys are attracting 80 percent of money line wagers and there is a two-fold answer for this occurrence. First, a lot of times those making NFL picks have no problem backing a relative long shot on the hunt for a bigger payday with an underdog. In addition, Dallas is a sharp 8-0 SU on the road this season, thus their confidence will be high heading to chilly Northern Wisconsin.

I’m split on these two wagers and while I can see the ‘Boys making this a close contest, not sure they can pull out a victory. However, I do agree points will not be in short supply unless the weather is bitterly cold.

Betting With the Public Play Over at 5Dimes

Betting Against the Public – Green Bay on the ML


Public Thinking Four in a Row for Baltimore
The last three playoffs matchups between the Ravens and Patriots have all been in New England, and Baltimore has covered three straight as road underdogs, winning twice.

Though it is not an overwhelming majority, 55 percent have picked up tickets with the Ravens at +7.

Baltimore is 7-3 ATS on the postseason road since 2008 and the return of Haloti Ngata makes a big impact to Baltimore’s interior defense which will focus on cutting off the Patriots running game.

Baltimore understands its pass rush has to bother Tom Brady, especially in his face, with Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil leading the charge.

Quarterback Joe Flacco was back to form against Pittsburgh and will look to duplicate or surpass that effort and running Justin Forsett will play a very important role in keeping the Birds on task for down and distance.

With the Ravens confidence level high based on past results, it makes sense to take the digits.

Betting With the Public Baltimore +7 at BetOnline

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