Props You Must Lock When Placing Your Week 16 NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, December 24, 2015 6:47 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 24, 2015 6:47 PM UTC

Bovada has released plenty of good specials this week so I'm breaking my stories into two parts again. Here are my NFL picks for additional Bovada Week 16 NFL special props.

Will Russell Wilson Throw At Least 3 TDs With No Picks In Week 16?

Will Doug Baldwin Catch At Least 2 TDs In Week 16?
For Wilson, yes is +170 and no -250 on NFL odds. For Baldwin, yes is +250 and no -400. Seattle hosts St. Louis on Sunday as a big favorite. Wilson threw three touchdowns and no interceptions in last week's easy win over Cleveland to become the first player in NFL history to pass for at least three touchdowns and no interceptions in five consecutive games.  That still shocks me. You would think someone like Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would have had a longer streak. Baldwin had two more TD catches last week. He is the third player in NFL history to catch at least two touchdown passes in four consecutive games, joining Cris Carter (1995), who is in the Hall of Fame, and Calvin Johnson (2011), who will be some day. Baldwin has 10 touchdown receptions in Seattle’s past four games, tied with Jerry Rice (1987), the best receiver in NFL history, for the most TD catches in a four-game span in NFL history. Before that stretch, Baldwin had three TD grabs all season. And to think, many worried about Seattle's offense when Wilson lost supposedly his favorite target in tight end Jimmy Graham for the season to injury. Seattle lost in St. Louis in Week 1, 34-31 in overtime. Wilson had only one TD pass and it wasn't to Baldwin. The Rams rank tied for fifth in the NFL in allowing just 18 TD passes (Seattle is No. 1 in allowing 12).

NFL Free Picks: I recommended yes and yes on these props last week.  Have to say no on both this week. St. Louis hasn't allowed more than two TD passes in its past three games (Bucs, Lions, Cardinals).


Who Will Lead The NFL In Touchdown Passes?
New England's Tom Brady is the current leader with 35 and is the -200 favorite.  He's followed by Carolina's Cam Newton (33 TDs; +225), Arizona's Carson Palmer (32 TDs; +600) and the NY Giants' Eli Manning (32 TDs; +1000). Now the thing you have to consider here is whether these guys will each play the remaining two regular-season games. I highly doubt Brady and Newton do. The Patriots and Panthers can lock up the top seeds in their respective conferences this week. And should Carolina do that, it might leave Arizona with little to play for -- depending on what it does Sunday -- and thus Palmer might rest in Week 17. The Giants won't have anything to play for on the final Sunday, either, if the Washington Redskins win Saturday night in Philadelphia or New York loses Sunday night in Minnesota.

NFL Free Pick: Palmer. I actually think the Cardinals lose at home to Green Bay on Sunday, which would make Week 17 relevant for Arizona to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC.


Will Jay Cutler Be Chicago's Starting QB Week 1 Of 2016?
Yes is even  money and no -140. Cutler is having a fine season under first-year offensive coordinator Adam Gase; the problem is that Gase probably isn't in  Chicago next year because many expect him to be hired as a head coach somewhere because of his good work with Cutler. His $16 million salary for 2016 is currently only guaranteed at $10 million. The additional $6 million will be guaranteed in March. Still, $16 million for a good starting quarterback isn't bad. So the Bears may well call around the NFL in seeing what they can get for him. If they could get a first-rounder, he'd be gone. That's not happening. Chicago needs so much on its roster, it probably would prefer to take a quarterback after Round 1 of the 2016 draft and let him sit one year under Cutler. Then the team starts fresh in 2017. And the NFL pick will be......

NFL Free Pick: Yes at Bovada


Will Tom Coughlin Be Giants' Coach Week 1 Of 2016 Season?
No is -200 and yes +150. As noted above, the Giants can be eliminated from the playoffs as early as Saturday night. That would make four straight years without a postseason spot. Coughlin is the NFL's oldest coach at 69 and has been in New York since 2004. Sure, he has a contract through 2016, but no teams like their coaches to be lame-ducks so you almost never see a guy coaching in the final year of his deal -- although that's happening in Indianapolis with Chuck Pagano.

NFL Free Pick: Barring a Super Bowl run, no chance.

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