Props & a Pair of MNF Picks for Patriots vs. Chiefs

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 25, 2014 3:42 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 25, 2014 3:42 PM UTC

Get ready to make some excellent profit with this Monday Night Football free sports pick for the New England Patriots & Kansas City Chiefs.

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3½, 45, William Hill)
Are you ready for some boredom? And too many commercials? This AFC matchup between the host Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) and Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Monday Night Football is a perfect example of how some games are made better—and often times actually “viewable”—when sports picks are made on them. Both the Patriots (Winner aka Moneyline -190, 5Dimes) and the Chiefs (+160) have been pretty lackluster to start the season and are actually both better defensively than they are on offense.

The Patriots (66 PF-49 PA)—usually known for a quick-paced and high-scoring attack and high-scoring games—have either evolved or devolved, depending on how you look at it, into a team that has to play good defense just to survive these days, with a pathetic yards per play average and no downfield deep threats. But Brady (59-41-1 ATS Away) and New England (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS in 2013) are lucky because the NFL schedule-maker has given them the Chiefs (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS) here on MNF, a team which is a lousy 0-6 ATS in its L6 Home games vs. the AFC East. And with the Patriots being 8-0 SU L8 against the AFC West, it may be best to just keep it simple and lay the lumber with the Patriots on the Moneyline -190 and just relax, if there is such a concept in sports betting.


Injury Watch and the Trends Favor the Visiting Patriots and the Under
Both teams have some minor injury concerns heading into Monday night’s game. The Patriots have key cogs RB Shane Vereen (20 rushes, 91 yards, TD), TE Rob Gronkowski (11 catches, 188 yards, 2 TDs) and WR Julian Edelman (22 catches, 260 yards, TD)—always a good choice for Anytime TD Scorer for this team when healthy along with Gronkowski—all listed as probable but all will likely be ready for MNF while C Ryan Wendell (knee), DT Sealver Siliga (foot), CB Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder) and S Don Jones (hamstring) are all listed as questionable.

The Chiefs have star Eric Berry listed as questionable as well as is WR Albert Wilson (ankle) while RB Cyrus Gray is listed as probable. Potential Chiefs backers and bettors here need to check the status of both RBs De’Anthony Thomas (hamstring) and crucial element Jamaal Charles, who were both listed as out on Tuesday but were both set to resume practice with the squad on Thursday. Somehow having both Charles and Thomas available here would be optimum for Kansas City and its chances at the mini-upset here, but to count on both of them playing and being 100% would not be wise. Advantage New England.

In their L10 meetings in this series with the Chiefs, the Patriots are an impressive 7-3 ATS and the L4 have all gone Under the Total. And with the Patriots playing some really impressive defense these days (#5 in NFL, 16.33 ppg) as well as being forced to run a lot and play dink-and-dunk with Gronkowski and Edelman, leaning toward the Under makes perfect sense from this distance. And Patriots Unders are 8-2 L10 against AFC West teams on the Road, so there are a number of trends supporting the Under 44½ here, as well as taking the visiting Patriots -190 on the Moneyline (straight up winner).


These Two AFC Teams Are Actually An Awful Lot Like Each Other These Days
Kansas City (125/1 To Win Super Bowl XLIX, Coral) and QB Alex Smith (64 completions, 643 yards, 4 TDs) actually has a little bit better numbers than does New England (10/1 To Win Super Bowl XLIX, Bwin) QB Tom Brady (67 completions, 632 yards, 3 TDs) at this stage in the season and both teams are allowing minimal points (KC: 10, 17, 15; NE: 20, 7, 9) heading into Monday night. The Jaguars (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) actually allowed more points against the Colts last Sunday (44) than either of these two teams have combined in all three of their games so far this season heading into Week 4—another sign that the Under 45 is possibly a good idea. In essence, both of these teams and their coaches—veterans Andy Reid (11-10 ATS with Chiefs) and Bill Belichick (141-105-5 ATS)—know their teams are incapable of going deep easily and getting the big play and being able to rally from behind so they have been forced to play low-scoring, chess type of games and rely on their defenses to keep them in games. Maybe not a new thing for the Chiefs, but seemingly pretty new for the Patriots who have averaged an impressive 32, 31, 34 and 28 ppg on offense over the last four seasons (NE allowed a consistent 21, 20, 20 and 20) and haven’t really needed to rely on a powerful defensive unit. Whatever works, right?


The Likely Best Approaches in the End and Some Interesting Prop Bets
Early attention on this game had the Patriots teetering as 3-point -135 favorites on NFL odds (Wednesday, 5Dimes) and now they are showing up as 3½-point favorites in almost all offshore and European books—Boylesports still had a -3 -125— which means that anyone who wants or wanted to take the Patriots -3 will likely have either already done so or will have to pay a premium to buy the ½ point should it stay at the tricky -3½ come game-time Monday night. With this potentially being a low-scoring game and 3 being such a key number in the world of NFL picks, the best idea here, as mentioned, is to take New England -190 to just win the game outright Moneyline (Winner) against a division (AFC West) that Belichick and the team has shown they can dominate.

The Total Patriots Team Points (24½, Stan James) and the Total Chiefs Team Points (20½) both seem a little bit high here considering everything. And the Race To 15 Points (New England -175, Paddy Power) seems like a good bet from the Patriots perspective as New England’s defense has allowed 20, 7 and 9 points to start out the season and Belichick knows his team is only a loss away from being .500 and running the risk of having an early season crisis of confidence. And the trends support just backing the Patriots on the Moneyline here as they are 8-3 SU L11 and 15-8 SU L23 Away, although just 3-6 SU in its L9 road contests. New England’s ugly 2-7 ATS L9 mark Away and the extra ½ point the line has, or is moving up to (-3½) is enough to back taking the safer route here and just laying the -190. And the Chiefs haven’t been exactly solid at Home going 1-4 over their L5 SU at Arrowhead. These two and the aforementioned 'Under 45' all make sense with what’s happened so far this season and with what’s happened lately in this series between two teams that meet every couple of years or so. And that’s probably a good thing for Kansas City.

Free NFL Picks: Under 45 (William Hill), Patriots Moneyline -190 (5Dimes)

Free NFL Props Pick: Race To 15 Points Patriots -175 (Paddy Power)

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