Top Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 10

Our football experts make their best Week 10 NFL prop picks, with an eye on value.

Familiarity breeds contempt this week as the Week 10 schedule is dotted with divisional matchups. These historical battles offer a number of tempting opportunities for our weekly NFL prop picks.

Here's a look at the top team and player NFL prop picks for the Week 0 schedule from our team of betting experts.

NFL Team Prop Picks

Dakota Cox: Detroit Lions lowest-scoring team (+700 via FanDuel)Martin Green: Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Washington - Over 10 points in 1st quarter (+105 via DraftKings)Esten McLaren: Buffalo Bills highest-scoring team (+800 via FanDuel)Mike Spector: Las Vegas Raiders Over 24.5 total points (-115 via DraftKings)

NFL Player Prop Picks

Cox: Dak Prescott 50-plus-yard completion (+200 via FanDuel)Green: Mike White Under 237.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings)McLaren: Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield Over 2.5 combined passing TDs (+105 via DraftKings)Spector: A.J. Brown Under 75.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings)

Top Expert Team Prop Picks

Lions lowest-scoring team (+700)

This is strictly for value. The Detroit Lions have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and they'll face an experienced Pittsburgh defense on the road. The Steelers can rush the passer and force turnovers with their secondary, and Lions quarterback Jared Goff likely won't be able to stay upright. - Cox

Buccaneers-Washington: Over 10 points in 1st quarter (+105)

Over 10 points in the first quarter has paid off in the Bucs' last five games. The offense should be rejuvenated after a bye week and Tom Brady will be keen to make a strong start in this game.

Washington's defense has been woeful this season and it may struggle to deal with Tampa in the opening stages of the game, even with Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski missing. We could see an entertaining first quarter, so over 10 points looks appealing. You can go for over 9.5 points at -137 if you want to play it a little more cautiously. - Green

Bills highest-scoring team (+800)

The Buffalo Bills are coming off their third loss of the season and now have a tenuous hold of the lead in the AFC East standings at 5-3. They rebounded from each of their first two losses with wins by at least 15 points, including a 35-0 rout of the division rival Miami Dolphins in Week 2. Week 10 gives them a chance to recover from last week's embarrassing 9-6 upset loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The New York Jets allow a league-worst 31.4 points per game with 130 points allowed over their last three games. Jets' second-string QB Mike White will also start under center on Sunday. That'll help the hosts boost their own point total. In turn, that'll help drive the Bills offense with more possessions on both sides. - McLaren

Raiders Over 24.5 total points (-115)

The Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs played two thrilling shootouts last year, with each game combining for at least 66 points. The Raiders averaged 35.5 points per game in those two games and the Chiefs defense is in much more disarray than it was last year.

Just because Kansas City held Green Bay to seven points last week does not mean the defensive issues are fixed. Steve Spagnuolo's defense was much more aggressive against youngster Jordan Love, but do not expect him to dial up as many blitzes against Derek Carr. As usual, teams tend to call more aggressive games when facing the Chiefs as they feel they need to keep up with their high-powered offense.

The Over is 10-0-1 in Las Vegas' last 11 games as home underdogs, so look for another shootout in primetime. - Spector

Top Expert Player Prop Picks

Prescott 50-plus-yard completion (+200)

I love the value here. While Atlanta's secondary has improved, there are still weaknesses. And the Cowboys have some of the best receivers at gaining yards after the catch in the NFC.

Prescott doesn't need the air yards for this one to hit. He simply needs to complete an intermediate pass with momentum so the receiver can make a play. There won't be many opportunities, but the value here is solid. - Cox

White Under 237.5 passing yards (-115)

The Bills have the best pass defense in the NFL this year, allowing a mere 177 yards per game. White has played well since coming in for Zach Wilson, but he is carrying a slight injury in his right forearm and he may not play for the entirety of this game. It is therefore difficult to imagine him throwing for more than 237.5 yards. You can also get -125 on him rushing under 3.5 yards. That looks appealing too, as he has not rushed for more than 3.5 yards this year and averages -0.1 yards. - Green

Jones + Mayfield Over 2.5 combined passing TDs (+105)

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has thrown for a touchdown in seven of his first nine NFL games and he has three two-TD games. The Browns' 17 passing touchdowns allowed through nine games are more than all but three teams. That's with an unexpected zero scores allowed through the air to the Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow last week.

The clincher on this Week 10 prop pick is Cleveland's injury- and COVID-19-depleted backfield. Browns running back D'Ernest Johnson rushed for 146 yards and a score in his lone start of the season without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but expect Baker Mayfield to take off some of the pressure in the tough road matchup. He has thrown for two scores in three of his last four games, including last week's win without wideout Odell Beckham Jr. - McLaren

Brown Under 75.5 receiving yards (-115)

This year, A.J. Brown has been a boom-or-bust receiver, staying under this projected total in five of eight games while exploding for more than 100 yards twice. Optimists will point out that Brown's two 100-yard receiving games have come in the last three weeks and that he has seen at least nine targets in his previous four games. However, his two blow-up games have come against two of the league's most banged-up secondaries (Colts, Chiefs), and he is in for a tough game against one of the best cover cornerbacks in New Orleans' Marshon Lattimore.

Lattimore has limited some of the game's best wide receivers this season. Tampa Bay's Mike Evans had just two catches for 48 yards, while Tom Brady chose to pick on other members of the secondary. In addition, Green Bay's Davante Adams had 56 yards, Washington's Terry McLaurin had 46 yards, and Seattle's Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf were held to just two catches each. New Orleans will not have to commit as many defenders to stop the run without Derrick Henry available, which means the Saints can roll more coverage Brown's way. - Spector