Team props haven’t been as strong as the player props for me this season, but the year is young, and there are some nice NFL odds values for bets this Week 4.
Lions vs. Jets: First to 10 Points
Detroit is a strange team, but they have been playing pretty well so far this season. Even though they lost one of their best linebackers while he was trying to mock Aaron Rodgers, the season is not completely lost, because they get to play the Jets this week. New York’s offense is pretty one-dimensional at the moment with all of the injuries to their receivers, and with the tough run defense of the Lions, that puts the Jets at a disadvantage. While the Jets can stop the run well also, their secondary is a point of weakness. Even though Calvin Johnson is a little banged up, the Lions should shred the Jets through the air this week, and that should lead to them getting to 10 points before New York. Even though the NFL odds are at -120, there is still value with taking the Lions at bet365.
Free NFL Props Pick: Lions (-120)
Panthers vs. Ravens: O/U 3.5 FGs
I am once again going back to the glorious well of the Ravens and field goals. Last week we nailed a prop guessing the over with a Baltimore game and field goals, and I’m going with the over once again. Bet365 has the over at +100, which is great value. Not only has Ravens’ kicker, Justin Tucker kicked and made seven field goals in the last two weeks, but the Ravens still remain one of the worst red zone teams in the NFL. Baltimore’s red zone percentage for touchdowns is 35%, and against the Panthers’ defense, that may mean only one or two touchdowns. With the Ravens solid passing game, I suspect they’ll get in field goal range often, especially with the leg of Tucker. Carolina is similarly positioned. They have a great kicker in Graham Gano, who has made five field goals in his last two games. The Panthers also aren’t much better in the red zone, converting 42% of their trips into touchdowns. Take the 'over,' because bet365 is feeling generous.
Free NFL Props Pick: Over 3.5 field goals (+100)
Bills vs. Texans: 3 Unanswered Scores
This final prop is like my carnival game that I can’t get enough of, even if I keep losing. It seems every time I try this prop I lose, so you have been forewarned. However I can’t stay away this week between the Bills and Texans. With a low total and low spread, this game should be close, and it also happens to be a revenge game. While this means nothing for the NFL odds, it does mean that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be on his game playing against his old team at the home of his new team. On the flip side, the Bills aren’t that bad, so I expect a pretty close game with either not a lot of scoring, or a lot of back and forth scoring. Even though both of these defenses are beatable, which does make this prop a little less valuable, it’s still at +175, which is great value if neither team scores three unanswered times. It’s a risk, but I am betting the ‘no’.
Free NFL Props Pick: No 3 Unanswered scores (+175)