With the NFL regular season coming to a close, we have to take advantage of every instance of NFL Odds value. That means looking at some of these player props.
Kelvin Benjamin O/U 68.5 receiving yards
This is a tough pick this week because we still don’t know the status of Cam Newton, but whether he plays or not, Kelvin Benjamin looks poised for a big day against Cleveland. Although the Browns’ secondary has been pretty good this season, by sure volume alone, bejamin is going to have plenty of opportunities to catch a bunch of passes. Last week without Newton, Benjamin still had 13 targets, with eight catches for over 100 yards. In fact in three of the last four weeks, Benjamin has received double-digit targets, so I would expect nothing less this week in a game that means everything for the Panthers’ playoff chances. Joe Haden is going to be there all game, so I don’t think we can expect a huge performance from the rook, but 70 yards receiving is well within reach this week.
Free NFL Props Pick: Benjamin OVER 68.5 receiving yards
Johnny Manziel rushing TD scored
I know what you’re thinking before you even say it, so keep it to yourselves! This is simply a long-shot flier of a prop this week, but the NFL Odds surrounding it are worth a look. Johnny Manziel is set to start once again for the Browns this week in Carolina, and even though the Panthers are solidly favored in this game, that doesn’t mean Manziel won’t get free and rush for a touchdown. Last week was mostly nerves and playing a solid defense if you ask me. This week in a game against a below average defense, Manziel could get free. The Panthers have already given up three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season, which ties them for second most in the NFL. Manziel has already run for a touchdown within the last two weeks, and while I’m not sold on his passing prowess in this game, I could easily see him getting into the end zone with his legs. The value NFL pick here is to take a chance on Johnny Football.
Free NFL Props Pick: Manziel rush TD Scored (+350)
Tom Brady O/U 285.5 passing yards
Tim Brady and the Patriots have already wrapped up the AFC East, but they are still in a battle for the #1 seed, so winning this game (Patriots vs. Jets) is still very important to the Pats. Right now playing the Jets isn’t a lock for a win, but it’s as close as it’s been since this became a legitimate rivalry again. Although the Jets beat up on the Patriots last season in New York, these are two very different teams than in 2013. The Patriots’ defense is much improved, and the Jets’ offense is worse. With the Jets’ secondary also playing horribly compared to last season, you hve to think that Brady and the Patriots will have a big passing day on Sunday. Brady’s over/under for passing yards this week is much too low considering the Jets’ defense. Look for Brady to easily go over 285 yards passing this week, and at -120 NFL Odds, there is still value to be had.
Free NFL Props Pick: Brady OVER 285.5 passing yards