Profit off of Sportsbooks Miscalculations for NFL Week 3

Nikki Adams

Friday, September 19, 2014 7:29 PM GMT

We sift through the Week 3 NFL betting board, analyse the odds and determine value NFL picks to spot.

San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills

Do you Keep Riding the Hot Bills?
Both Bills (2-0) and Chargers (1-1) are 2-0 ATS this season, but something is going to have to give when these two sides collide in week 3 NFL betting.

NFL Odds: Chargers +115, Bills -135
Bills are 2-0 going into week 3, looking to go 3-0 with a win over the San Diego Chargers at home. Home advantage makes the Bills a tempting bet to win straight up as the -135 favourites and, even, to cover as the 2-point favourites. Given their surprising form to start the season – shocking the Bears on the road and beating the Dolphins at home quite convincingly, online sportsbooks are recording big money on the Bills at the expense of the Chargers, which means the betting public is buying the Bills as a 3-0 team this season. But are we buying the Bills as a 3-0 team?

The resounding answer is, no. Beating unpredictable Bears and dodgy Dolphins is grand, but beating the Chargers is another matter entirely. The Chargers made the playoffs last season. They are after a huge upset in week 2 over the defending champions, a statement-making win that sends them on the road brimming with confidence as the mere +115 underdogs to win straight up.

On paper, the Chargers have more to offer on both sides of the ball, including a better quarterback. Finally, underscoring the Chargers’ value as a whole are several key facts those interested in placing NFL picks should also consider a) they have a 13-6-1 overall ATS record since 2013, which is actually the best record across the league since 2013, b) they are 9-3-1 ATS as an overall underdog since 2013; and c) they are 6-1-1 ATS as the away underdog since 2013. What’s more, after recording a win, San Diego went 5-4-1 ATS last season while Buffalo went 1-5-0 ATS.

NFL Picks: Chargers +115 SU

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Oakland Raiders vs. New England Patriots

Are the Patriots Value as Double-Digit Favourites?

NFL Odds: Raiders +14.0, Patriots -14.0 (-110); O/U 46.5
Patriots (1-1) ripped apart Matt Cassel and the Vikings last weekend to beat them 30-7, all while matched as the 3-point favourites ahead of the game. The Patriots put down the points and then some... Does that make them a value double-digit favourite at the expense of a suspect Raiders side?

The Patriots are matched as the whopping 14-point favourites at home to the Raiders. Oakland are winless on the season and 1-1 ATS after two weeks, but they are 5-3-1 ATS as the road underdog since 2013. Oakland have averaged just 14-points in two games and last week were beaten 30-14 by a largely defensive-minded Texans. New England Patriots are exceedingly more offensive than the Texans are, having averaged 25-points per game. And when you pit a quarterback of Tom Brady’s ilk against an unseasoned Derrek Carr, it’s a mismatch. The balance tips in favour of the Patriots wholeheartedly.

NFL Picks: Patriots -14.0 (-110); O 46.5

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Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Will Eagles Continue to Soar?
NFL Odds: Redskins +6.5 (-110) at Eagles -6.5 (-105); O/U 50

The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles are after a stupendous 2-0 SU and ATS start on the season, a winning run underscored by drama, high-octane action, second-half comebacks and loads of lovely offense. So far the Eagles have entertained as much as they’ve underlined their credibility as the NFC East champions. Blowing past the Jaguars 34-17 in week 1, they scored 34 unanswered points in the second half to lay the 10.5-points. Then they defeated the Colts at home, coming back from a 20-3 deficit to win 30-27 and cover. This week they go into their home affair with the Washington Redskin matched only as the 6-point favourites. This seems a tad low given the fact that the Redskins will be without RGIII, who was injured last week. (Kirk Cousins will lead an O-line that decimated the hapless Jaguars 41-10 in week 2.) What’s more, the Eagles are top of the table with one of the best offenses – averaging 303.0 passing yards and 32.0 points per game. It’s a divisional game so it should be competitive, but the Eagles have to be good for more than a score surely.

NFL Picks: Eagles -6.5 (-105) at Bet365/ Over 50 -110 at YouWager

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