Preseason NFL Picks: Titans vs. Chiefs Against the Spread

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 2:47 PM GMT

Before placing your NFL picks, note that the Chiefs have had a full week to prepare for this contest while the Titans, who played Sunday night, recorded a 27-14 victory against a listless St. Louis team.  

Tennessee Titans vs. KC Chiefs (-5) 8:00 ET: Preseason Week 3 Predictions
The Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs suit up for Game 3 of the NFL-Ex season at 8:00 ET Friday night. 

If you read my “Rehearsal Reversal” NFL article from today’s date, you will know that KC is one of the 2-0 SU ATS teams.  The Chiefs have won by a combined margin of 16 points, while covering by a combined margin of 20 points.  Much of that came in their Week 1 victory against Arizona, whom they defeated in the desert (34-19) as 3 point underdog.  Last week’s victory against perennial Super Bowl contender, Seattle, was much harder fought.  The Chiefs won the battle of the yardage by a meager count of 238-227, indicating the competitive nature of the game.  Following that closely contested victory on their home field and a 2-0 SU ATS preseason mark, it would be no surprise if the Chiefs have a letdown in Game 3.  Expect starting QB Smith to get more work this week, though backup QB Daniel has looked crisp in his time at the helm.  Though this statistic appears to have little relevance in August 2015, it must be noted that the Chiefs’ franchise has a history of underperformance in NFL-EX with a record of 10-36 ATS, including 1-18 ATS if today’s opponent is off a victory.

In last week’s article on Tennessee, I noted the proclivity for current Tennessee HC Whisenhunt to fail in the preseason.  Despite last week’s win and cover, Whisenhunt remains just 11-20 SU ATS in preseason action.  That includes 1-1 SU ATS this season, as the Titans lost 31-24 at Atlanta in the opener (played 4 QBs).  Tonight, a strong QB rotation will take the field for the Titans, including No. 2 draft pick, Mariota, his presumed backup, Mettenberger, along with veteran NFL QB, Whitehurst.  A more intriguing aspect of the game is the presence of 1st year Tennessee DC LeBeau.  It speaks volumes that the veteran DC of the Pittsburgh Steelers chose employment with the Titans, rather than go quietly into obscurity following an outstanding career with the Pittsburgh Steelers.  His famed zoned blitzes could wreak havoc in a preseason game in which there is an unwritten rule to avoid blitzing tactics.  

Short rest for the Titans off a win is clearly a concern.  But, the Chiefs’ poor record of preseason success fits hand in glove with HC Reid, whose disinterest in NFL-Ex games is well documented.  Place your NFL picks with confidence in what could well evolve into a low-scoring defensive contest, a preseason number of more than 4 points could well come into play.

NFL Picks: Take Tennessee Titans +4.5 at Pinnacle