Preseason Home Trends Make Rams -2.5 the Pick Over Packers

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, August 13, 2014 2:33 PM GMT

Two teams that normally play well in Week 2 of the preseason are set to face off this week. For the second time in as many seasons, the Packers head into St. Louis during Week 2 of the preseason, and the NFL Odds favor the Rams at -2 ½, with a total of 41.

Last year’s glimpse
Lucky for you the Rams hosted the Packers almost 365 days ago in the preseason where Greenbay came away with the 19-7 victory. However both starting quarterbacks, Sam Bradford and Aaron Rodgers played solid snaps, and it looks like they both might do the same in this game.

Coincidently, both guys were held out of the first preseason game entirely, and both are looking good for a return in Week 2. Jeff Fisher has already stated that his guys will use this game as one of their tune-ups for the regular season, and if history in the preseason shows us anything, both of these teams will be trying to win it.

Mike McCarty and Fisher are a combined 16-8 SU in Week 2 of the preseason during their careers, however as favorites this week, I think the Rams can play well enough to get the win and cover.

Bradford likely to play solid snaps
Last year against the Rams in Week 2 of the preseason Rodgers stayed in the game barely into the 2nd quarter before being taken out. However Bradford played nearly the entire first half and played well despite not leading his team to a score. He was 8/12 with 156 yards passing in the first half, and if he can put up those numbers this week against the Packers, St. Louis should come out on top. All he’ll have to do is get a touchdown or two to go along with those numbers.

Even though he is coming off of an ACL injury last season, Bradford has had a good amount of time to recover, and he is reportedly looking good in camp. Assuming he plays more snaps than Rodgers, the Rams should benefit from him being on the field. There is a chance he looks a little rusty, but the Packers’ starters won’t be in the game long enough to substantially take advantage of that.

Bradford and the Rams have the much deeper team too. Shaun Hill had a QBR of 151.2 in Week 1 of the preseason, going 5/7 with 84 yards and two touchdowns. Austin Davis also played well, however now with Bradford back, and rookie Garrett Gilbert on the roster as well, the likelihood he gets playing time is nil.

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The Sharp Pick
For the Packers, Rodgers is going to come into the game, lob one or two touchdowns and exit before St. Louis knows what’s happened. However that may not be such a bad thing, especially if it’s only one touchdown before Rodgers takes a seat. The Rams’ starters on defense will probably be in the game for more than the first quarter too, and with one of the best front sevens in the game, St. Louis might give the Packers’ offensive line a tough challenge while in the game. Before placing your NFL picks, do note that home teams went 14-2 SU in Preseason Week 1. This is a Rams team that could turn some heads this season and given the home advantages that we saw last week, a St. Louis cover will earn you some cash.

NFL Pick: Rams -2 ½