Preseason Betting Angle Prompts Bills' To Cover Spread At Home vs. Giants

Buffalo Bills

Thursday, August 18, 2016 3:31 PM GMT

Our professional NFL consultant previews Saturday’s preseason game between the Giants and Bills. Go inside to read this highly informative betting article culminated with a NFL pick.

N.Y. Giants vs Buffalo Bills
The Bills and Giants will square off in a week two preseason game on Saturday afternoon. The opening kickoff at New Cap Era Stadium in Buffalo is slated for 4:05 PM Eastern Time, and it will be televised by the NFL Network. These teams last met in a preseason action during the 2014 Hall of Fame Game, and it was won by New York 17-13. They also met in week four of the regular season last year in Buffalo, New York prevailed again by a score of 24-10, and easily covering as a 6.5-point underdog. Current (8/17) NFL betting odds at TheGreek.com has Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite, and the posted total is 40.0.

 

Last Week
The Giants turned in a lackluster performance during a 27-10 home loss to Miami in its preseason opener. They were plagued by 4 turnovers in that contest and amassed just 227 yards of total offense. The good news, they rushed for impressive 158 yards. Contrarily, the Giants collected a paltry 69 net passing yards. Giants’ quarterbacks were also sacked 4 times. However, the defense was able to record 4 sacks of their own. New York was an awful 2-12 (16.7%) on offensive 3rd down conversions.

Despite their 19-18 home loss to Indianapolis last Saturday, Buffalo had some positives they can build upon. The Bills had a sizable 372 to 274 edge in total yards during that contest. One of the enigmas that held Buffalo back last season was a lack of discipline and namely penalties. That reared its ugly head once again during their preseason opener, evidenced by 11 Buffalo penalties for a substantial 106 yards. The offense didn’t turn the ball over, and unfortunately, their defense wasn’t able to force any as well.

 

Quarterback Rotations
Both teams have invested heavily on their starting quarterbacks, and besides week three of the preseason schedule, I don’t expect to see either Eli Manning (Giants) or Tyrod Taylor (Bills) being put in harm’s way.

Ryan Nassib started for the Giants against Miami last week and turned in a less than inspiring performance. Nassib went 7-15 passing for a paltry 75 yards, and all tossed 2 interceptions. Former Virginia Tech and Arizona Cardinal signal caller Logan Thomas saw limited action, going 2-3 for 12 yards.

Despite the numbers not indicating it, both E.J. Manuel and rookie 4th rounder Cardale Jones performed very well under center for Buffalo against Indianapolis. Manuel was 10-18 for 91 yards and 1 touchdown. Nonetheless, his statistics don’t tell the whole story. Manuel was victimized by several blatant drops that cost him at least another 4 completions and 50 yards. The most uplifting showing of them all for Buffalo last week was that of first-year quarterback Cardale Jones. Similar to Manuel, Jones was much sharper than his numbers exhibited, and was maligned by three well-thrown dropped passes. Nevertheless, Jones was 11-21 for 162 yards and 1 touchdown in less than a half. He also ran 4 times for an additional 34 yards.

 

NFL Preseason Betting Angle and Pick
Both teams are coming off home favorite straight up losses last week. This sets up what’s been a very successful preseason betting angle, and it’s definitively passed the test of time. Any preseason home favorite of 6.5 or less (Bills), coming off a home favorite straight up loss, and is facing an opponent (Giants) coming off a straight up favorite loss, resulted in those home favorites going 15-6 ATS (71.4%) since 1988.

Betting on the NFL preseason can certainly be considered an inexact science, to say the least. Having said that, there’s still money to be made when researched solid information and specific situations are in place. I’m going with the small home favorite in this one for one of my NFL picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Bills -2.5 -115
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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