Predicting NFL Odds Movement for Colts-Broncos Week 1

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, August 31, 2014 4:45 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 31, 2014 4:45 PM UTC

The Broncos and Colts will open the Sunday night NBC regular season schedule. Our NFL betting odds expert analyzes the point-spread and totals movements in this game, in addition to projecting where he sees the numbers landing.

Sunday Night Football on NBC
The Broncos will host the Colts on the opening Sunday of the NFL regular season at Sports Authority Field in Denver. This will be a NBC national telecast, and the opening kickoff is slated for 8:30 PM ET. Both of these teams are coming off successful seasons in 2013. The Colts were the winners of the AFC South with a record of 11-5, and advanced to the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs before losing to the New England Patriots. The Broncos won the AFC West by going 13-3, and they advanced all the way to the Super Bowl before losing to the Seattle Seahawks.


The Opening Numbers
The Broncos opened as a 7.0 point favorite in the NFL odds, briefly went down to 6.5, and is now currently at the original number of 7.0. The NFL betting action in this game has seen 58% of the general public siding with the home favorite Broncos.

The total in this contest opened at 55.0 then quickly moved to 55.5, and has since moved 55.0 once again. During the past 3-seasons, if the general public influenced a total being raised in a Denver Broncos game, they’ve been right on just 12 of 31 occasions (38.7%) of the time.

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History of the High Total
Needless to say, a total of 55.0 in the NFL would be considered extremely high. As a matter of fact, since the start of the 1983 NFL regular season there’s been just 69-games which saw a total of 54.0 or more. Putting this rare occurrence even further into perspective, only 2 of those 39-games have taken place in the opening week of the season.


My Projection on Future Line Moves
Based on the fact that this is a Denver team that went 9-1 at home in 2013, and covered in 7 of those 10-games, I don’t think it would be a stretch to say that public money will continue to come in at a greater rate on the Broncos compared to the Colts as the week progresses. It must be also noted that since Andrew Luck came on the scene in 2012 for the Colts, you may be surprised to know they’re just 4-8 ATS as a road underdog.

When looking to make your NFL picks on this game, keep in mind that whenever you get two high profile quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck playing in the same game, let alone a nationally televised primetime affair, you can bet the ranch that regardless of how high the books make the total, the general public will never shy away from wagering on going over the number. As I alluded to earlier, this is an extremely high total, so pertaining to movement of the number goes, I will go out on a limb to say that the total will stay status quo, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the total hovered right around this number in the hours leading up to the game.

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