As Week 8 trading action is heating up, we look at the money line odds for each and every game currently available on the NFL odds board in search of winning NFL picks. Check out where we’re putting sharp money.
Week 7 NFL Betting Recap
Our last round of SU NFL picks went 9-6 SU, improving our record over the last two weeks to 18-11-1 SU. While we had some good winning picks, including our predicted upset by the Chiefs in San Diego, we could have had a much better week had we a) treated the outrageous notion the Broncos would lose at home to the Niners with the disdain it so obviously deserved, b) recognised just how bad the Bears really are, and c) jumped off the Saints bandwagon a long time ago. Indeed, the favourites edged the underdogs 12-3 SU and the home teams edged the road teams 12-3 SU in week 7 NFL betting (improving overall to 73-31-1 SU and 55-47-3 SU through seven weeks).
So with another slate of games to take a stab at this week, and armed with the above home truths and some established NFL trends in SU betting this season, we look ahead to another promising week of straight-up NFL picks.
San Diego Chargers +275 vs. Denver Broncos -350
We learned the mistake of betting against the Broncos last week, so we’re not about to entertain the notion here. If you require stats to substantiate this NFL pick, here are a few: the Broncos are 5-1 SU this season with an average margin of victory of 11.3 points and a perfect 4-0 SU at home with a 15-point margin of victory. If that’s not enough, they are 33-9-0 since 2012 SU overall and 20-3-0 SU at home since 2012, as well 13-1 SU as home favourites since 2013. It’s so obvious betting against the Broncos at Mile High is folly. Need we say more?
Free NFL Picks: Broncos -350
Detroit Lions -185 vs. Atlanta Falcons +165
This game is set to kick off at Wembley Stadium, which alters the whole home vs. away team trends that would have had us perhaps leaning ever so slightly towards the Falcons, who are 13-8-0 at home since 2012. Seeing as this is technically an away game for both teams, the balance tips towards the Lions 2-1-0 SU on the away this season compared to the Falcons 0-4-0 SU on the away this season. In fact, the Falcons are a discouraging 1-11-0 SU away since 2013. More convincing than those stats is form this season – the Lions are simply the better team and that’s why they are our choice free pick.
Free NFL Picks: Lions -185
Baltimore Ravens -105 vs. Cincinnati Bengals -115
Bookies are clearly splitting hairs between these two divisional rivals, tipping them just a dime apart on the money line. Although the Bengals are after an abysmal account against Indianapolis, held pointless and outscored by 27 points, it’s clear bookies expect there’s a chance the Bengals would bounce back here, a notion underscored by their 10-1-1 SU record at home since 2013. But trends can be broken. Games can turn on a dime. It’s no secret the Ravens aren’t the best travelling outfit in the NFL league, but they are 5-2 SU on the season, riding a two-game winning streak. They have a two-game edge over the Bengals in the table, and with the hosts still reeling from last week’s debacle this could be the opportunity for the Ravens to pull ahead significantly.
Free NFL Picks: Ravens -105 at 5Dimes
Buffalo Bills +130 vs. New York Jets -150
This game is a complete tossup in more ways than one. Jets are 1-6SU on the season while the Bills are 4-3 SU. While form favours the Bills, trends favour the Jets, who are 7-2 SU against the Bills in their last 9 meetings and 5-1 SU at home to the Bills in their last six home games. So, which trend hold true in this game is anybody’s guess? Forced to make an NFL pick, we’re hanging our hat on trends of both home vs. away and favourites vs. underdogs in NFL betting this season. In other words, we’re leaning towards the home team to pull through.
Free NFL Picks:: Jets -150
Chicago Bears +215 vs. New England Patriots -260
As we mentioned above, the Chicago Bears are dreadful. Last week, we took a chance on them on our NFL picks against the Miami Dolphins and they disappointed across the board. We’re not about to make that same mistake two weeks in a row now are we. Not especially when they are descending on the Foxboro where the Patriots are undefeated this season (3-0SU) and boast a perfect, unblemished, irreproachable 12-0-0 SU since 2013 record alongside an 11.2 margin of victory.
Free NFL Picks: Patriots -260
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
The money line odds are still off the board for this game because various uncertainties about players and starters prevail in both camps. Still, what we do know is the Titans have proven beatable for the most part this season, and have a home SU record of 4-7 since last season. There’s a lot to like about the Texans, even though they are behind three straight defeats. Those defeats came to heavyweights in the league. Titans are the complete opposite to a heavyweight.
Free NFL Picks: Texans
Miami Dolphins -270 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +220
Jacksonville Jaguars sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets when they beat the Cleveland Browns at home last week, cashing as the +210 underdogs in straight up NFL odds betting. The notion that they would be bankable two weeks in a row seems wildly optimistic, not to mention grossly irresponsible to circulate without sound facts or statistics to back it up. Fact is Jaguars are 3-15 SU since 2012. Blake Bortles is a definite step up at centre with a promising future. But it’s too soon to start predicting a change in fortunes for the Jaguars. This is a game Miami really should win for SU backers.
Free NFL Picks: Dolphins -270
Minnesota Vikings +130 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -150
NFL betting public isn’t convinced by the Buccaneers, despite their favourable nod in this game. Bucs are a disappointing 1-5 SU overall and 0-3 SU at home. That said if there were a game they could win, this would be such a game – an inexperienced rookie quarterback, who’s come off an ankle injury in week 7 NFL betting and goes into only his second road game of the his fledgling career.
Free NFL Picks: Bucs -150
Seattle Seahawks -240 vs. Carolina Panthers +200
Many NFL bettors are only too willing to dismiss Seattle’s recent spate of defeats as flukes – one-offs that are best swept under the carpet. The notion of a ticked off Seattle Seahawks looking for vindication at the expense of the Panthers – only because they are next up on the NFL schedule – is more appealing. And NFL bettors have responding to that subjective notion, piling onto Seattle’s NFL odds with abandon, notwithstanding that it’s rooted mostly in what they accomplished last season rather than this season. What if the Seahawks don’t swan into Carolina to scoop up the win as all and sundry expect them to? Granted Panthers aren’t bullet proof and they’ve had some right up-and-down games already, but they are 2-1 SU at home this season and 9-3 SU at home since last season. Taking the win in Carolina isn’t as straightforward or simple as the NFL odds would suggest. So we’re taking a chance on this home dog for our NFL picks.
Free NFL Picks: Panthers +200
St. Louis Rams +250 vs. Kansas City Chiefs -310
St. Louis Rams orchestrated one of the biggest upsets of the season when they beat defending champions Seattle Seahawks at home. It was also a moral victory for a side that has had its fair share of injury woes this season, not to mention the making of Austin Davis as NFL’s bona fide Cinderella – rising out of the obscurity into the spotlight. It’s one thing to accomplish such a feat at home, another to do it on the road. The reality is the Rams are still a two-win team this season. The Chiefs, who are trending upwards, will look upon this lopsided matchup as an opportunity to bank a pivotal “W.” Take the Chiefs at -310 on your NFL picks.
Free NFL Picks: Chiefs -310
Philadelphia Eagles +130 vs. Arizona Cardinals -150
If there were a road team this week that we fancy for the road upset it would be the Eagles over the Cardinals. Eagles are coming off a bye. They are well rested and have had ample time to prepare for this matchup, a matchup that will be a good litmus test for both sides we feel. Eagles’ offense is really good when it wants to be while their defense is slightly underrated in our opinion. Cardinals, meanwhile, have been punching above their weight class and this could be the game that injects some reality into their campaign this season. Needless to say, NFL betting trends point towards the hosts, but we’re chucking those aside in favour of Chip Kelly and the Eagles for the road upset on our NFL picks.
Free NFL Picks: Eagles +130
Indianapolis Colts -155 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers +135
Since their back-to-back defeats to the start the season, the Colts have righted the ship and reeled off five straight wins. Steelers, meanwhile, have oscillated between a win and a loss on a weekly basis. They just beat Houston on Monday night, largely down to gift-wrapped mistakes by the Texans. As luck (no pun intended) would have it, they are due a loss this week if their up-and-down trend holds true. How fortunate is that for Colts backers: the stars aligning between these two sides as far as their recent trends go with the Colts winning streak pitted against the Steelers on a week in which they due a loss.
Free NFL Picks: Colts -155
Oakland Raiders +255 vs. Cleveland Browns -315
Browns had no business losing in Jacksonville last weekend. Now, they have to suffer the ignominy of being one of three teams to suffer a defeat in Jacksonville in 18 games, not least the team to hand the Jaguars their first win of the season. If only to distance themselves from that dubious honour, they must beat the hapless Raiders at home. To lose to the Raiders this week would effectively mark them as the team to have ended the two worst losing streaks in the league this season. They’ll never live it down if that happens. The Raiders are 1-9-0 on the road since last season, so it shouldn’t happen.
Free NFL Picks: Browns -315
Green Bay Packers -105 vs. New Orleans Saints -115
This NFL betting line is tighter than an accountant’s purse and for good reason. Despite a disappointing season by the Saints, it’s hard to overlook their unblemished home record, which stands at 10-0-0 since last season and yields a 100% winning ratio in their last ten games. Current reality suggests the Saints are struggling. This could mean it’s only a matter of time before they suffer a defeat at home. So far, they’ve had lightweights visit the Superdome this season. This is their first home meeting against a legitimate Super Bowl contender and one has to concede the Packers really do have a shot at the upset here. If it sounds like reasonable NFL betting outcome, it follows it’s a good NFL pick.
Free NFL Picks: Packers -105
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
If you haven’t bought what Dallas is selling so far, you should consider it soon before the goodwill expires – because if Tony Romo is in the equation we know it eventually will. On paper, this game serves a prime matchup for the Cowboys to extend their winning form to seven in a row. The NFL odds are currently off the board because it’s yet uncertain who will start for the Redskins – RGIII or Colt McCoy. No matter which QB starts though, a Redskins’ win over Cowboys is highly improbable. RGIII wasn’t that great to start with this season, seemingly struggling with the new coaching schemes. To expect him to make a difference all of a sudden and fresh off an injury just tests the limits of optimism. As for the unheralded Colt McCoy...watch this space. What matters is the Cowboys have the momentum behind a 6-1 SU record while the Redskins are essentially a two-win team. Obviously, the Cowboys are the only NFL pick here to consider.
Free NFL Picks: Cowboys