As the NFL betting action heats up in week 7, we look at each and every game, analyse the matchups, breakdown the NFL odds and serve up our SU NFL picks. We’ve got some straight forward predictions as well as several choice, if not bold, upsets for NFL bettors to spot.
New York Jets +375 vs. New England Patriots -500
So much for the hoopla about the Patriots being in trouble, Tom Brady a “has-been” and all and sundry writing them off for the season. Patriots have always found a way to overcome various obstacles, injury challenges and criticism, largely down to the tactical brilliance of coach Bill Belichek’s and the awe-inspiring Tom Brady at quarterback. After a few early season wobbles, they’ve bounced back in a big way. Riding a two-game winning streak ahead of their date with the Jets, odds makers confidently tip the Patriots as the whopping -500 favourites to win SU. NFL odds underscored by their 5-1 SU record over the Jets in their last six games, as well as the fact that the Jets, strike a meek pose in money-line betting markets as the +375 underdogs, boast one of the worst losing runs in the league this season: five in a row, which puts them almost on par with the Jaguars and Raiders.
NFL Picks: Patriots -500
Atlanta Falcons +235 vs. Baltimore Ravens -290
Falcons appear to have keeled over in recent weeks behind three defeats in a row. What’s more, they’ve yet to win a road game this season (0-3 SU away). Hence, they are the rather large +235 underdogs on the NFL odds page to mastermind the upset in Baltimore. Coupled with the Ravens’ solid home form which includes an 8-1 SU record at home as the home favourite since 2013, one gets a sense of just how badly the odds are stacked against the Falcons. Ravens might not be the best team in the NFL but they should have no problem picking apart Falcons’ shoddy defence to take the win at home.
NFL Picks: Ravens -290
Carolina Panthers +235 vs. Green Bay Packers -290
The Panthers are leading the NFC South by a slim margin, behind a dramatic 37-37 tie with Bengals in week 6 NFL betting. It marked the second straight game in which the Panthers stormed back from behind to gain a valuable point. Odds makers aren’t taking stock of that recent upsurge however by sending the Panthers into Green Bay as the decided +235 underdogs. Largely down to recent NFL betting trends that show the Panthers are 2-5 SU in their last seven games when playing the Packers. Consider the Green Bay Packers are riding the momentum of three straight wins, including a come-from-behind win over Miami on the road last week, they deserve to be the firm favourites at -290 to win straight up. Underscoring those firm NFL odds is a 14-4-1 SU record at home in their last 19 games. Clearly, the Packers thrive at home and that makes them our choice NFL pick to win straight up. Yet, somehow this matchup isn’t a “sure thing” on our week 7 NFL picks. Panthers loom dangerous, so we won’t be surprised if they do turn the odds in their favour.
NFL Picks: Packers -290
Cincinnati Bengals +145 vs. Indianapolis Colts -165
It’s clear now that NFL betting analysts and experts were giving the Bengals too much credit after a 3-0 SU start on the season. Bengals have crashed down to earth and so has their NFL stock. They head to Indianapolis as the marginal +145 pups to take on a Colts side that appears to be really good. It remains to be seen just how good the Colts really are though. They’ve built their tidy run of four straight wins over middleweights and lightweights in the league. That said, until the Colts prove us otherwise, they are the better NFL pick in this game at -165 to win outright. What’s more, they are a perfect 5-0 SU in their last five against the Bengals at home.
NFL Picks: Colts -165
Cleveland Browns -250 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +210
The NFL betting public is enjoying a rewarding love affair with the Browns. They are behind two straight wins, an upset over Tennessee Titans as the road pups and a home win over the Steelers as the home chalk. Jaguars, on the other hand, are winless on the season, wholly off form and colour. Since Blake Bortles took over at centre, the general betting feeling is the Jaguars aren’t far off from their first win. They’ve been playing better and seem more focused on the field. But those small improvements aren’t enough to convince us they are ready to transcend their winless state at the expense of the confident Browns.
NFL Picks: Browns -250
Miami Dolphins +155 vs. Chicago Bears -175
Seven weeks into the NFL 2014 season and the Dolphins and Bears are two of the toughest teams to read. One week they’re busy masterminding massive upsets over heavyweights: Dolphins beat Patriots while Bears beat Niners. The next they’re as feisty as slugs succumbing to crushing defeats. The numbers/stats cast further clouds over our NFL picks: Dolphins are 2-5 SU in their last seven games while the Bears are 2-4 SU in their last six games at home. Oh, and the Bears are yet to win at home this season. Chicago have to be the NFL pick here, but we won’t be shocked if this game does go against the NFL betting market.
NFL Picks: Bears -175
Minnesota Vikings +210 vs. Buffalo Bills -250
The Vikings are 4-2 SU against the Bills in their last six games, but nothing about this instalment of the Vikings lead us to believe they are capable of pulling off the road upset and keeping that positive trend going. The excitement surrounding Teddy Bridgewater has died down now, largely down to the nearly scoreless account against the Lions last week in which his inexperience was utterly conspicuous. Bills, meanwhile, were left reeling by the Patriots last week. But given their brutal schedule on the season and the fact that they’ve come out of it with a respectable 3-3 SU gives us confidence in the Bills on our NFL picks. They are in prime position to go 4-3 SU over a subpar opponent in week 7 NFL betting.
NFL Picks: Bills -250
New Orleans Saints +120 vs. Detroit Lions -140
New Orleans Saints are one of those NFL betting enigmas, utterly bankable at home and equally un~bankable on the road. They are just 4-9 SU on the road since 2013, which yields a 30% winning ratio – not a strong endorsement for your NFL picks. However, everything is about matchups. How well teams stack up. The thing is, Lions aren’t unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination: they are 2-1 SU at home this season and 6-5 SU since 2013. And just something about the predicament the Saints are in, faced with a must-win game in order prevent their season falling off a cliff, has us leaning towards the Saints for the upset on our NFL picks. Call it a long shot if you will. A wildly optimistic gander but the Saints can do it, surely.
NFL Picks: Saints +120
Seattle Seahawks -300 vs. St. Louis Rams +240
Seattle Seahawks aren’t looking quite so good after the Dallas Cowboys served the most-talked about upset on week 6’s NFL board. Still, that hasn’t taken anything away from the Seahawks in terms of NFL betting value. They are the prohibitive -300 favourites over an inferior Rams side, and the NFL betting public is going all in here. We can’t disagree with that.
NFL Picks: Seahawks -300
Tennessee Titans +205 vs. Washington Redskins -245
Of all the games in week 7 NFL betting, this one is a right tossup. Neither side inspires any confidence in betting circles. This is the case of which team is worse. To that we answer...drum roll...Titans. Titans threw the kitchen sink at the Jaguars and only managed to take the 16-14 victory. Redskins are riding a four-game losing streak, but their schedule was brutal. The subpar Titans should give the Redskins a much-needed confidence boost at home with a pivotal win.
NFL Picks: Redskins -245
Kansas City Chiefs +175 vs. San Diego Chargers -210
The Chargers are riding a five-game winning streak behind wins over middleweights and lesser weights. As such, we’re not convinced they are as good as their 5-1 SU record on the season suggests. Chiefs were dealt a brutal schedule to start the season but managed to come away with a 2-3 record, which isn’t bad. It’s not great, however, either. This is a must-win game for the Chiefs in more ways than one. Hence, it’s our bold NFL pick for the big upset of the week to spot.
NFL Picks:: Chiefs +175
Arizona Cardinals -175 vs. Oakland Raiders +155
The Raiders are winless on the season. They are desperate for a win but can’t seem to buy one no matter how hard they try. Last week, they rose to the challenge and gave the Chargers a run for their money, only to fall short at the end. Cardinals have Carson Palmer back in the mix. They are after a win in week 6 NFL betting to maintain their lead in the tough NFC West division. This is a game the Cardinals can’t afford to lose if they are to advance their bid for a playoff spot successfully with San Francisco and Seattle Seahawks breathing down their necks. To some extent, the NFL money line odds appear deceiving. Given the contrasting fortunes of both teams, the Raiders have no business being mere short +155 underdogs. Then again, that only makes the Cardinals at -175 a value NFL pick.
NFL Picks: Cardinals -175
New York Giants +230 vs. Dallas Cowboys -280
Giants were abysmal last week in a 27-0 defeat to the Eagles. Cowboys left NFL bettors gobsmacked after they served notice to the Seahawks. The NFL betting verdict in: Giants aren’t as good as they seemed; the Cowboys aren’t as bad as they seemed. In fact, some have gone as far as suggesting the Cowboys are now the best team in the NFL! Needless to say, that’s a stretch. Giants have something to prove this week, so one can’t write them off entirely even if bookies aren’t buying what they are selling, matching them as the long shot bet at +230. Having said that, how can we argue with a five-game winning streak? If the Cowboys don’t suffer a hangover from week 6’s big upset, they should prove the correct NFL pick -280 NFL odds.
NFL Picks: Cowboys -280
San Francisco 49ers +235 vs. Denver Broncos -290
It’s our opinion that this game should be set to closer NFL odds than those currently available. Niners are better than their +235 NFL odds suggest, while the Broncos look overrated at -290 against a stout Niners defence. Touted as the must-see billing of the week, expect these two solid outfits to pander to the hype and brouhaha as they take it up a notch and serve up a tight NFL betting affair. If the Cowboys can beat the Seahawks at home, what’s to stop the Niners attempting another headline grabber in week 7 NFL betting? Consider Niners’ positive 9-4 SU record on the road since 2013 sends them on a wave of optimism against the Broncos, who are 12-2 SU at home in their last 14 games, and this game actually could go either way. To put it simply: Broncos should win but Niners could win. Oh, gosh! This is a tough one. We like both, but they can't both win, obviously. But we're going to go out on a limb here anyway and predict another upset on the NFL odds' board in week 7. Crazy, huh?
NFL Picks: Niners +235
Houston Texans +150 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -170
If there were a team tough to read, it’s the Steelers. They’ve been blowing hot and cold this season, including last week’s debacle against Cleveland. They are 3-3 SU and at the bottom of a tightly packed AFC North division. Texans, meanwhile, are also 3-3 SU on the season but they’ve lost two games in a row. Those losses however showed plenty positives and potential by the Texans; they lost narrowly to Dallas and Colts, two high-flying teams this season. As such, the Texans practically leap off the page as the value NFL pick at +150 to beat a beatable Steelers on Monday Night primetime football betting.
NFL Picks: Houston +150