Power Rankings & NFL Picks for Week 3

Doug Upstone

Thursday, September 24, 2015 7:35 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 24, 2015 7:35 PM UTC

It was a crazy week for upsets in Week 2, as the sportsbooks had a strong week and many sports bettors will have to pay to re-enter their Survivor Pool because of what happened with their NFL picks.

Time to move ahead to this week's addition of NFL Power Rankings and these are intended to not only measure the strength of each team, but also provide a point spread like NFL odds from sportsbooks and be useful like those a football handicapper might use in seeking an edge for sports picks at places like WagerWeb.

You can play along by adding three points to the home team to make a spread on the game and compare versus what the oddsmakers are showing. Anything with a three or more differential might be worth consideration for a play. Last week was a tough week as NFL Power Rankings were just 7-9 SU, but we had five games in which our number was two or more points lower than the actual betting odds which ended up being correct.


  Opener Current     Opener Current
NFC East       AFC East    
Dallas 99 100   Buffalo 94 96
N.Y. Giants 95 95   Miami 96 95
Philadelphia 99 97   New England 100 101
Washington 93 95   N.Y. Jets 92 97
NFC North       AFC North    
ChIcago 93 90   Baltimore 97 94
Detroit 96 93   Cincinnati 95 98
Green Bay 100 101   Cleveland 93 93
Minnesota 97 96   Pittsburgh 96 99
NFC South       AFC South    
Atlanta 95 96   Houston 94 93
Carolina 95 96   Indianapolis 99 94
New Orleans 96 92   Jacksonville 92 92
Tampa Bay 92 91   Tennessee 92 92
NFC West       AFC West    
Arizona 94 99   Denver 97 99
San Francisco 92 92   Kansas City 96 96
Seattle 100 97   Oakland 92 91
St. Louis 93 93   San Diego 95 96


Thursday - N.Y. Giants -3 over Washington
The actual line has eroded down to what we have it at as bettors wonder if the G-Men wil make another blunder to blow a game.


Pittsburgh -3 over St. Louis
I admit to being surprised the Steelers are only at -1 officially, making this a fishy line. However, for NFL picks we are confident our figure is spot on.


Minnesota -3.5 over San Diego
Our opener was 2.5 points higher than the books on the Vikings. While these kind of ranking cannot figure Philip Rivers turnovers, the Chargers have six already, which has affected their outcomes. Minny is up to -2.5.


Houston -5 over Tampa Bay
We are 1.5 points lower on Houston mostly because they have shown zilch thus far and Tampa Bay had an impressive upset at New Orleans last week.


New York Jets -1.5 over Philadelphia
After the Jets upset Monday night our ranking and the books were the same, but with the Eagles offensive line in disarray and DeMarco Murray with a hamstring issue, the Gang Green is on the rise.


Carolina -6.5 over New Orleans
For the most part, the Saints have been hardly competitive in both their losses, which based on scores really sent their power ranking plunging. We are calling the Carolina cover here.


New England -12.5 over Jacksonville
With a number this high, being one point off is not that big a deal. We have the lower figure and keep in mind that the New England Patriots are 2-16 ATS giving out 12 or more points.


Cincinnati -1 over Baltimore
These rankings are calling for first outright upset of the season by having the Bengals. Let's see how this one plays out with Baltimore in a must win spot.


Cleveland -5 over Oakland
No, the Browns being bigger favorites than the line has nothing to do with Johnny Manziel being sent to the bench again. Our numbers subtract one because Oakland has been a lousy road underdog.


Indianapolis Pick vs. Tennessee
If this doesn't explain how bad the Indianapolis Colts have looked nothing does. While I might not personally agree, the numbers give the Titans a real shot to cover.


Dallas -7 over Atlanta (Based on T. Romo playing)
Completely understand this looks odd, but with these rankings, tried to avoid the subjective nature of what injured players are worth and leave that to the oddsmakers. Our numbers will correct themselves organically, but this is still of note to contemplate what the spread would have been with Romo.


Arizona -10 over San Francisco
Given the current odds on this NFC West showdown, we have a definite call on the home team on this one.


Miami -1 over Buffalo
If you check out my SBR videos this week, you will find my thoughts match those what we have here, where Miami being a terrible home favorite is overvalued in this contest.


Seattle -11 over Chicago (Based on J. Cutler playing)
Jimmy Claussen was supposed to start for Chicago, now reports are Jay Cutler might go if possible, leaving this a confusing situation. The Seahawks at -15 is heavy lumber, but if they start forcing turnovers, well than, quite possible to cover.


Denver -3 over Denver
Looks like Mathew Stafford will go for Detroit and we have a matchup with the linemakers.


Monday - Green Bay -8 over Kansas City
We jump over the key number of seven and while that is tricky, we also know Aaron Rodgers never let's anything go and remembers Kansas City ended Green Bay's perfect season at 13-0 four years ago.

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