Power Rankings & NFL Picks for Week 2

Doug Upstone

Thursday, September 17, 2015 5:32 PM GMT

Last year we introduced the Power Rankings and we received a lot of positive feedback from readers like you, who are getting ready to place NFL picks while breaking down the NFL odds.

These rankings are intended to not only measure the strength of each team, but also provide a point spread like NFL odds from sportsbooks and be useful like those a football handicapper might use in seeking an edge for NFL picks at places like WagerWeb.

You can play along by adding three points to the home team to make a spread on the game and compare versus what the oddsmakers are showing. Anything with a three or more differential might be worth consideration for a play. Last week these were 10-6 and 8-8 ATS.

 

  Opener Current     Opener Current
NFC East       AFC East    
Dallas 99 99   Buffalo 94 97
N.Y. Giants 95 95   Miami 96 96
Philadelphia 99 98   New England 100 100
Washington 93 93   N.Y. Jets 92 95
             
NFC North       AFC North    
ChIcago 93 93   Baltimore 97 96
Detroit 96 95   Cincinnati 95 98
Green Bay 100 100   Cleveland 93 90
Minnesota 97 94   Pittsburgh 96 96
             
NFC South       AFC South    
Atlanta 95 96   Houston 94 93
Carolina 95 96   Indianapolis 99 96
New Orleans 96 94   Jacksonville 92 91
Tampa Bay 92 89   Tennessee 92 95
             
NFC West       AFC West    
Arizona 94 96   Denver 97 98
San Francisco 92 95   Kansas City 96 97
Seattle 100 98   Oakland 92 89
St. Louis 93 95   San Diego 95 96

 

Thursday - Kansas City -1 over Denver
Most sharp bettors are on Denver and I would guess their numbers are very similar to what I have here compared to -3 for the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

Carolina -5.5 over Houston
Personally I think it is an upgrade to start QB Ryan Mallett for Houston. The actual line is Carolina at -3, but if the Texans put out the same effort as last week, they will lose again by seven.

 

New Orleans -8 over Tampa Bay
We all know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blow, but seriously, but them catching +10 in a division game this early in the season? Seems to be some value here with the moribund Bucs.

 

Pittsburgh -4.5 over San Francisco
The Steelers opened at our number and have gone up to -6, which we agree is still doable. Check my NFL Value Plays article to learn why San Francisco is really in a tough spot.

 

Minnesota -2 over Detroit
The Vikings opened at -3 and some sportsbooks have them down to -2.5. Off two largely bad performances, one of these teams is going to start 0-2.

 

New England -1 over Buffalo
Dead on with the current number. The New England Patriots opened at -1.5 and almost immediately this game went to a Pick, but has settled close to starting point. Really fascinating game, but New England almost a 3-to-1 choice on bets placed.

 

Arizona Pick vs. Chicago
The public number is the Cardinals at -2; however, Chicago did many things right against Green Bay. This outcome will be based on what quarterback has the fewest turnovers.

 

Tennessee -2.5 over Cleveland
Because these NFL Power Rankings are based on scores, Tennessee blew up, while Cleveland fell significantly. Bettors disliked the Browns at -4 and moved the Titans to favorites, which matches what we have.

 

Cincinnati -4.5 over San Diego
We are a little higher, with the Cincinnati Bengals showing up at -3 at most places. However, if Andy Dalton and TE Tyler Eifert continue to develop, Cincinnati can beat both numbers.

 

St. Louis Pick vs. Washington
Coming into the season, I had these teams with the same power number and a week ago I would have had Washington at -2. I cannot disagree with the Rams at -3, given that they usually cover against the Redskins; however, let's see how it plays out.

 

N.Y. Giants -2 over Atlanta
It's the same figure as the sportsbooks have and I am convinced the Giants' mental approach is the difference in this game. Do they let the Dallas game go or does it permeate around them?

 

Baltimore -4 over Oakland
We are two points lower than the actual -6 for Baltimore. Nonetheless, our number deducts a point on the Ravens, who are 12-21 ATS as an away favorite the last 10 years. (Not that the oddsmakers do not)

 

Miami -3 over Jacksonville
With the Jaguars 3-12-1 ATS as home underdogs, it's hard to find fault with Miami listed at -6. Nevertheless, if Jacksonville does not turn the ball over, they can makes this very competitive.

 

Philadelphia -1 over Dallas
I completely understand that Dez Bryant is out and that it makes the Eagles a larger favorite, but I cannot overlook that the Cowboys are 15-6 ATS as away underdogs.

 

Green Bay -6 over Seattle
This Sunday night game opened at three, but as the week has gone on, there is growing support for Green Bay, who would seem to really want this one after the few visits to Coffee Town.

 

Monday - Indianapolis -5 over N.Y. Jets
The Indianapolis Colts are -7 and the feeling here is they win by our number or less or blowout out Gang Green by 17.