It was back to normal with the public coming up on the short end against sportsbooks last week. But that does not mean we quit trying; instead we will go after the NFL odds on a mission this week.
With that in mind, let's move ahead to this week's NFL Power Rankings. These are intended to not only measure the strength of each team, but also provide point spreads like on the NFL odds board and be useful in seeking an edge for NFL picks at places like WagerWeb.
You can play along by adding three points to the home team to make a spread on the game and compare versus what the various sportsbooks are showing. Anything with a three or more point differential might be worth consideration for a play. Last week these NFL Power Rankings at 10-5 and 8-7 ATS and were helpful in steering people off of Denver in particular. Let's see what we can come up with this week.
|NFC East||AFC East|
|NFC North||AFC North|
|NFC South||AFC South|
|NFC West||AFC West|
|San Francisco||92||89||Kansas City||96||93|
|St. Louis||93||95||San Diego||95||94|
Thursday - Indianapolis -1 over Houston
Those placing sports picks are not impressed Andrew Luck is returning and made Houston three-point home favorites. While as can agree the Texans are the more desperate club, do you want to give points on team that has yet to play a good game? We will stick with our number.
Tampa Bay -2 over Jacksonville
Virtually the same figure as the books and this contest will likely come down to which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes and has better red zone effectiveness.
Buffalo -1.5 over Tennessee
The odds are heading our way after Buffalo opened at -3. Tennessee's off a bye but the Bills were sharp in one lone road assignment.
Baltimore -6.5 over Cleveland
Dead on with the sportsbooks. Cleveland is 6-0 ATS vs. teams averaging 350 or more yards offense and Baltimore is 6-0 ATS after consecutive division games.
Atlanta -11 over Washington
We are four points higher than the line and we are good with that with Kirk Cousins' penchant for making miscues on the road and Matt Ryan just sizzling in the Georgia Dome.
Kansas City -8 over Chicago
We are about a point lower than the marketplace which seems correct given how Kansas City has been playing. We could be wrong if Jay Cutler starts throwing to red jerseys.
Philadelphia -5 over New Orleans
Very close to the oddsmakers figure in a contest of two underachievers who might have just been overrated to begin with. The road team is 4-1 ATS of late.
Green Bay -11 over St. Louis
We are above the line and it is a reflection of how good Green Bay is at Lambeau Field and you also have to consider St. Louis seldom puts two strong games together if the first one was an upset.
Cincinnati -3.5 over Seattle
Outlaw line has the Bengals at just -1.5 before Monday's contest, but given how Seattle played, the books and us are in agreement Cincinnati should have been a bigger favorite.
Arizona -4 over Detroit
The Detroit Lions will win eventually and we can justify our slightly higher number, but also completely understand why Detroit is down to +2.5. Arizona is however 6-0 and 5-1 ATS vs. the Lions.
New England -5 over Dallas
Our numbers might still be a little high on Dallas without it's best players and as stated previously, these is score-based ratings, which is likely reason why we have New England lower.
Denver -7 over Oakland
As a football handicapper, have no problem with Denver at this number. The Denver Broncos are not always overwhelming these days, but hard to argue with 3-1 ATS record and they have won seven straight over Oakland (6-0-1 ATS).
New York Giants -14 over San Francisco
Calling for the Giants to roll up San Fran and unless the 49ers find a passing game, this will happen.
Monday - Pittsburgh -12 over San Diego
The Steelers should have beaten Baltimore last week and our numbers suggest they are five points better than San Diego and pull off the upset.