Power Rankings to Consider as You Place Your Week 4 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Thursday, October 1, 2015 6:15 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015 6:15 PM UTC

For sports bettors it was a very good week in the NFL. That was not the case for sportsbooks who ended up on the short side of their own NFL odds based on the results and ended up taking a loss.

With that in mind, let's move ahead to this week's addition of NFL Power Rankings. These are intended to not only measure the strength of each team, but also provide a point spread like NFL odds from oddsmakers and be useful like those a football handicapper might use in seeking an edge for NFL picks at places like WagerWeb.

You can play along by adding three points to the home team to make a spread on the game and compare versus what the various sportsbooks are showing. Anything with a three or more point differential might be worth consideration for a play. Last week was exceptional with these NFL Power Rankings at 13-3 and 12-4 ATS, let's see what we can come up with this week.


  Opener Current     Opener Current
NFC East       AFC East    
Dallas 99 97   Buffalo 94 99
N.Y. Giants 95 97   Miami 96 92
Philadelphia 99 98   New England 100 104
Washington 93 93   N.Y. Jets 92 96
NFC North       AFC North    
ChIcago 93 87   Baltimore 97 94
Detroit 96 92   Cincinnati 95 98
Green Bay 100 102   Cleveland 93 92
Minnesota 97 99   Pittsburgh 96 99
NFC South       AFC South    
Atlanta 95 99   Houston 94 94
Carolina 95 96   Indianapolis 99 94
New Orleans 96 93   Jacksonville 92 89
Tampa Bay 92 90   Tennessee 92 92
NFC West       AFC West    
Arizona 94 102   Denver 97 100
San Francisco 92 89   Kansas City 96 95
Seattle 100 100   Oakland 92 92
St. Louis 93 93   San Diego 95 94


Thursday - Pittsburgh -9 over Baltimore (This is based on Ben Roethlisberger playing)
Of course we know Big Ben is out and we would have had Pittsburgh as big favorites over the line. We try to stay fact-based with these numbers and we do not think it is a coincidence that the Ravens were sent out as only -2.5 point favorites, instead of the three to four most anticipated.


New York Jets -4 over Miami
Our numbers are a bit higher than the line and it is predicated on how poorly Miami has played all season and being wiped out at home by Buffalo. Will a trip to London help or hurt the Dolphins?


Indianapolis -8 over Jacksonville
Very close to the opening of the Indianapolis Colts favored by -8.5 and there has been a little upward movement on Indianapolis to -8. It is clears what linemakers think of Indianapolis, who have been home favorites of -13 and -11.5 the past two years.


Atlanta -8 over Houston
The public has put a little charge into the Falcons lifting them to -6 and we agree we might be a bit high and the that is based on Atlanta's convincing win last week and Houston's uneven play to date.


Carolina -4 over Tampa Bay
The Carolina Panthers might be 3-0, but nobody considers them a dominant team at this juncture, which is why are number and the sportsbooks are very close.


Buffalo -5 over New York Giants
In this tussle in Buffalo, we are in agreement with the oddsmakers, yet will keep a close eye on this one with G-Men a potential threat here.


Oakland -1.5 over Chicago
Our numbers point to the Bears being the worst team in the NFL and starting Jimmy Clausen does not help. Nonetheless, are you comfortable backing Oakland at -3, who is a road favorite for the second time in 74 away contests?


Philadelphia -3 over Washington
Dead on with the books have, but total is dropping because Hurricane Joaquin is heading towards Virginia.


Cincinnati -5.5 over Kansas City
Have no problem being a point and half higher than what you will find most places, with Cincinnati a first rate team and Kansas City having offensive woes and secondary issues. These rankings had Bengals as outright upset winner last week.


San Diego -4 over Cleveland
The San Diego Chargers dismal play last week really hurt their power ranking, which is why they are this low. If Johnny Manziel plays, we might be very accurate with this figure because of his big play potential.


Green Bay -10 over San Francisco
There are situational considerations to back the 49ers closer to current -8, however, if Aaron Rodgers does not face much of a pass rush, this will be more than right.


Denver -4 over Minnesota
Peyton Manning looks every bit his age, the Denver running game is 31st in the NFL and Minnesota can rush the passer. Do you want to give or take the 6.5 points?


Arizona -12.5 over St. Louis
Definitely have Arizona as -play on - material in this spot. Top offense in the league and defense which forces mistakes. Love Jeff Fisher for Rams, but this Bruce Arians is one aggressive dude for Cardinals.


Dallas -1.5 over New Orleans
This number is based on Drew Brees playing, but probably best to pass on this one altogether.


Monday - Seattle -12 over Detroit
Goodness do the Detroit Lions look pitiful! Not sure how they start to feel better about themselves playing in Seattle on a Monday night. Like our number.

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