Plenty of Fireworks Likely as Patriots Visit Buccaneers on TNF

David Schwab

Wednesday, October 4, 2017 5:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2017 5:22 PM UTC

Week 5 in the NFL gets started Thursday with an interesting interconference clash between New England Patriots and Tampa Bay in a slated 8:25 p.m. (ET) start on CBS from Raymond James Stadium.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 55)

New England lost a grand total of two games in last year’s run to a Super Bowl title. With last Sunday’s stunning 33-30 loss to Carolina as a nine-point home favorite, it has matched that number in the first four weeks of this season. The Patriots are 2-2 straight-up with a 1-3 record against the spread and the total has gone over in all four games. They come into this game with a 9-1 record ATS in their last 10 road games.

You cannot point any fingers at Tom Brady or the Patriots offense for the surprising start. This unit is ranked second in the NFL in scoring with an average of 32.2 points per game and it moves to the top of the list in total yards gained. Brady has already thrown for 1,399 yards and 10 touchdowns while completing at least two passes to 10 different players. New England’s defense has been a whole different story. It is giving up an average of 324 passing yards a game and 456.8 total yards to rank last in the league in both categories. This has resulted in a points-allowed average of 32.0.

The Buccaneers raised their SU record to 2-1 with Sunday’s 25-23 victory against the New York Giants on a last-second field goal. They could not cover as 2.5-point home favorites to fall to 1-2 ATS and the total went over the closing 46-point line. Going back to last season, Tampa Bay has built some solid momentum on its home field with a five-game winning streak. It is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games.

The biggest edge against the Patriots on Thursday night could be a Buccaneers passing game that is third in the league with an average of 277.7 yards per game. Third-year quarterback Jameis Winston completed 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three touchdowns in the Giants win, and on the year he has thrown for 864 yards and six scores. Mike Evans continues to be his top target with 19 receptions for 227 yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay’s defense has also had its issues against the pass with an average of 315.7 yards allowed.


Game Betting Trends
  • The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and they have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in their last eight games.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win, but they have failed to cover in their last four games played on Thursday. The total has gone OVER in their last seven Thursday games.
  • The favorite in this matchup has covered in the last four meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of last five games between the two.


Patriots-Bucs Verdict

You know that the betting public is going to jump all over New England as one of the top NFL picks this week, but I still think that the over on SBR NFL odds’ already inflated total line is the way to go. Both of these offenses should be able to put on a show in prime time.

Free NFL Pick: Over 55Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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