Playoffs Picks: Great Teaser Plays to Increase Sunday's Profit

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, January 14, 2015 3:57 PM GMT

With only a couple of games on this weekend, we have to find NFL Odds value wherever we can. Using the teaser is a great way to switch up your NFL Picks, and I have two for both of the championship games. 

Packers vs. Seahawks
The NFC Championship game should be nothing more than fantastic, as it’s a rematch of Week 1, and the Fail Mary game. The NFL odds have the Packers as +7 ½ underdogs here on the road in Century Link, with a total of 46 ½ points. While the Seahawks look unstoppable at home, and even though they blew out the Packers to start the season there, I think adding points to the Packers already high spread is the way to go. Teasing Green Bay up to +13 ½ would be excellent value, and using a seven-point teaser would add even more value up to +14 ½.

I think the Seahawks will win this game, however even on one leg, Aaron Rodgers is still going to be effective. As long as he can avoid getting hurt further, and avoid the pass rush as much as possible, he should be able to keep this to a two or even one score game. For the total of 46 ½, teasing it up and taking the under seems like a no-brainer. It worked well for us with the Seahawks and Panthers last week, and it should so well again here. The total would increase to 53 in some cases, and I don’t think there is any way these two teams go over that mark.

Free NFL Pick: 2-team teaser: Packers +13 ½ & UNDER 53

 

Colts vs. Patriots
While I was wrong predicting one of the two teams in the AFC Championship game, it doesn’t surprise me that much to see Andrew Luck and the Colts here. The Greek Sportsbook have the Patriots as -6 ½ favorites, which has come down some since it opened on Sunday around -7. I predicted that the line would drop a half point or so, but it just gives you value on the Patriots in this one. As much as I like the Colts and what they have done on defense, this will be the ultimate test for Luck. The Patriots’ defense is as good as its been since they started winning Super Bowls over ten years ago, when Luck was just a teenager dreaming of the NFL. Teasing the Patriots down to a PK or even -½ looks like a valuable play.

On top of that, the total is probably the most interesting play of the day. At 53 ½, the total has not moved since it opened, and no one seems to know what to do with it. However if these two defenses show up, this could be a very low scoring game. I don’t take too much from the Pats giving up over 30 points to the Ravens last week. Baltimore seems to always either beat, or play the Patriots close. However Tom Brady dominated Luck in their first meeting with one another back in Indianapolis on Week 11. However I doubt the Patriots score 42 points again, even at home, but I do expect them to hold down the Colts, and for the under to be a great teaser play.

Free NFL Pick: 2-team teaser: Patriots PK & UNDER 59 ½