There’s value in the NFL playoff futures market, and especially when looking at the passing and rushing leader odds.
The most playoff passing yards market has mirrored the postseason bracket very closely over the past three seasons. The leaders all played in the Super Bowl and won.
However, the rushing yards playoff leader market is much more volatile. In 2019, Derrick Henry and Raheem Mostert finished first and second, respectively, but neither played in the Super Bowl.
Let’s examine these two NFL playoff futures markets, and highlight a player who’s offering the best value in each category.
NFL Playoff Futures: Most Passing Yards Odds
Passing yards leader best value bet: Aaron Rodgers
The current playoff format was implemented last season. Tom Brady played one more game than Patrick Mahomes due to the Kansas City Chiefs' first-round bye. Brady defeated Mahomes by 211 passing yards because of that extra contest.
My eyes jump to Aaron Rodgers when I evaluate this prop. The Packers have been given +380 odds of winning the Super Bowl, but Rodgers has been priced at +1000 to be the playoff passing yards leader.
Rodgers being in the pocket at those odds for a Super Bowl favorite is a solid bet. Another quarterback could play four games instead of three after the Packers earned a first-round bye. However, you can wait to see how the postseason plays out and make a hedge bet if needed. The odds on Rodgers are long enough to offer numerous hedge options.
By far the most valuable number on him is at DraftKings Sportsbook. BetMGM has posted Rodgers at +650, and FanDuel is offering +600.
Best Price: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL Playoff Futures: Most Rushing Yards Odds
Rushing yards leader best value bet: Josh Allen
Henry is the favorite in this market, but his +600 odds are too short for me. His workload remains unclear, the Titans could play one fewer game after getting a bye, and there's some uncertainty about Tennessee's championship contender status. So I'm looking for a long shot.
There isn't much high-end talent at the running back position in the playoffs this year. Watching from home are Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook. That's why Josh Allen boasts the best combination of skill, potential team success, and appealing odds.
Allen has a much better chance of being the playoff rushing leader than his +6600 odds at BetMGM suggest. It's borderline theft if you can get your hands on that number. Don't settle for the +4000 at DraftKings or the +4900 at FanDuel if BetMGM is available to you.
Best Price: +6500 via BetMGM