It’s hard to believe, but it’s already Week 7, which means it’s time for more player and team prop picks from bet365. I have three more plays this week for your NFL picks, and with the steady successes we’ve been having, it would be wise to add these plays.
Ameer Abdullah O/U 39.5 Rushing Yards
Ameer Abdullah has been somewhat of a disappointment this season. After a lot of hype coming into the season, poor play and turnovers have put him and the Lions squarely in the disappointment category. However, this week he has a chance to turn things around against the Vikings, but that may be more difficult than it sounds. Plus, even though his yards total for this one seems like a lock for the over, I am convinced this is one of the biggest trap lines that bet365 is offering right now on their NFL odds board.
For starters, the Vikings run defense has been pretty good this season. Through five games, the Vikings have given up less than 100 yards per game on the ground on average, and if it wasn’t for their horrible games in Week 1 against the 49ers, and Week 4 against the Broncos, they might be considered one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Top that off with the fact that because of Abdullah’s fumbling, Theo Riddick is expected to see an increased workload this week because of Joique Bell still being banged up. Look for Riddick to get the entire passing down work, as well as possibly splitting the early down work. Take the under on Abdullah this week.
NFL Pick: UNDER 39.5 rush yards (-120)
Alex Smith O/U 245.5 Passing Yards
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a must win situation this week against the Steelers, who are starting Landry Jones as their quarterback. However, even though the Steelers pass defense has been questionable this season, much like the Vikings and their two games where they gave up a ton of rush yards, the Steelers have really only had two games this season where they were exceptionally bad against the pass.
Looking at Smith, he doesn’t come off as a guy that is easily going to throw for 300 yards this week. His yards per attempt are not that great, and with Jones starting for the Steelers, the need for Kansas City to play catch up in this one is diminished some. It does look like Jeremy Maclin will play in this game, which helps Smith, but the game being at home probably won’t help his passing numbers. Looking at his home/road splits this season, Smith is averaging right around 300 yards per game through the air on the road this season, but in his two home games, the Kansas City quarterback hasn’t even touched 200 yards. Take the under for Smith this week, even against the Steelers.
NFL Pick: UNDER 245.5 passing yards (-125)
Brandon Marshall O/U 88.5 Receiving Yards
Brandon Marshall has been a revelation for the Jets this season, and now he has one of his biggest games in recent memory, as the Jets and Patriots hook up from Foxburough. Marshall has a very high yard total this week, and while the Patriots defense isn’t even close to what it’s been over the last two seasons, I doubt they are going to let Marshall go off on them. The Patriots defense is good enough to take him out of the game, and if that’s the case, Eric Decker’s yards total is probably the number you need to attack this week. I can’t see the Patriots letting the Jets’ best skill player go off.
Plus, if you look at the games that the Patriots have given up the most passing yards, they were against much better passing offenses than the New York Jets. New York will want to run the ball this week, and that should put a slight damper on their pass game. They will have to keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands as much as possible, and that means more Chris Ivory than Marshal or Decker. Take the under with your NFL picks for the third time this week.
NFL Pick: UNDER 88.5 receiving yards (-120)