Week 5 is finally here and it’s time to take a look at the player props from bet365. With more teams on bye and some uncertainty amongst some of the games, here are my three best NFL picks.
Eddie Lacy O/U 75.5 Rushing Yards
The Packers are sizeable favorites against the Rams this week, and while Eddie Lacy has been known to be a slow starter in his career, I think his slow start might continue throughout the fifth week of the season. Lacy isn’t exactly the guy that can break off a 40-yard run to make sure he cashes the over for this prop. This might be especially true this week against the Rams defense, which is one of the fast defenses in the NFL. Not to mention they are pretty solid up front. The way the Green Bay Packers are going to have to beat the Rams is through the air, and Lacy might be an afterthought in the run game. Even if the Packers get up big against the Rams, I expect James Starks to get some carries in this game too. Lacy might need close to 20 carries to even get close to cashing the over in this one. Take the under as your first prop pick.
NFL Pick: UNDER 75.5 rush yards (-125) at bet365
Matt Ryan O/U 287.5 Passing Yards
Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been a huge success this season so far under new head coach Dan Quinn, but even after throwing up over 80 points in their last two weeks, Ryan did not throw for more than 300 yards in either game. However that may change this week against the Redskins. Washington’s stats against the pass aren’t bad, but Ryan and the Falcons are by far the biggest offensive test of Washington’s season. Their run defense may limit Devonta Freeman to less than three touchdowns, but Atlanta’s passing game should be too much for the Redskins. I fully expect Ryan to throw for close to, if not more than 300 yards in this one. Take the over with your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: OVER 287.5 pass yards (-130 NFL odds)
Matt Forte O/U 3.5 Receiving Yards
For my receiving yards prop this week, I’m going with a running back. He is also going up against another good receiving back in Jamaal Charles this week, but with the Bears likely playing from behind, I fully expect Matt Forte to be heavily involved in the passing game this week. With both Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal banged up and possibly out of this game, Forte is going to have to be the team’s main threat in both the passing and running game. However the Chiefs are still pretty stout up front, which could lead the Chicago Bears to have to be more creative in how they get Forte the ball. Bubble screens and wheel routes might be the main offense for Forte this week, and with the Bears limited to a short passing game, and likely playing from behind, look for Forte to have 40 or more receiving yards this week against the league’s worst pass defense through four weeks.
NFL Pick: OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-125)