Week 3 had some of the most total points scored in a week ever in NFL history, so will Week 4 follow that same script? bet365 has some nice player props out right now, and I have found three that appear to be great value for Week 4’s NFL odds.
Tyrod Taylor O/U 228.5 Passing Yards
With the way the Bills and Tyrod Taylor have been playing through the first three weeks, it appears the Bills may be a definite contender for a playoff spot in the AFC. This week the Bills hook up with their in-state rivals, the New York Giants, and with Eli Manning coming to town, Taylor might have to open things up in order to beat the Giants. He has increased his passing yards total every week through three weeks, and with the Bills defense giving up as many passing yards as they are, Taylor might be forced to put the ball in the air 30 or more times in this one. He is third in yards per attempt to start the year, and I think 228.5 is a steal to start the weekend with an over pick.
NFL Pick: OVER 228.5 passing yards (-135) at bet365
Melvin Gordon O/U 80.5 Rushing Yards
Like many other rookie running backs this season, Melvin Gordon has been slowly integrated into the Chargers offense. Now against the Browns’ defense who is giving up the third most rushing yards through three weeks, you would think this one is a lock for the over. However, despite getting only around 15 touches per week in the running game, Gordon’s yards total has shot up this week to over 80 yards. He would need to average well over 5 yards per carry to cash the over with the amount of touches he is getting per game, and even against a bad defense, I doubt the Chargers will unleash him for 25 touches, not matter what the score is. Go for the under with your NFL picks here, and expect the average of 15 rushing attempts for the rookie.
NFL Pick: UNDER 80.5 rushing yards (-120)
A.J. Green O/U 5.5 Receptions
I could not get pass this number when I saw it. Apparently someone got to this one before I noticed, because the NFL odds for the over on this prop is -160. Even with the large amount of chalk, the over is still the play with this one simply because it’s is A.J. Green, and he has continuously been undervalued this season. The Bengals’ offense is clicking, and they are at home against the worst pass defense in the NFL through three weeks. The Chiefs are giving up an average of 19 receptions per game to wide receivers, and with Green leading the Bengals in targets through the first three weeks, I expect double-digit targets for him against Kansas City. Green also saw 13 targets last week for his best game of the season. I don’t see Cincinnati going away from that any time soon.
NFL Pick: OVER 5.5 receptions (-160)