Player Props That Can Add Betting Value to Your Week 14 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, December 12, 2015 8:35 PM GMT

It should be another glorious week of prop betting in the NFL as we head down the stretch run of the season, and this Sunday the NFL Odds from bet365’s props are as ripe as ever. Here are my three best player props of the week.

Jeremy Hill O/U 55.5 Rushing Yards
At first glance this total seems a bit low with how many carries Jeremy Hill has been seeing lately, but against the Steelers it actually might be a little too high. Even though Hill has been getting a strong majority of the work in Cincinnati recently compared to Gio Bernard, the Bengals have also dominated their last two games against much weaker opponents than their divisional rival, the Steelers. This week Hill likely isn’t going to get as many looks, and more likely it will be Bernard seeing work in an increased passing game.  

The Bengals could easily find themselves in a shootout where Bernard makes more sense to be on the field and receiving more touches. Even though Hill has seen more touches and snaps over the last two weeks, Bernard still leads this team in offensive snaps by a large margin. Plus, the Steelers run defense has actually been pretty tough over the last five weeks. If you take away one big Latavius Murray 44-yard run when the Steelers were playing the Raiders, the Steelers are giving up only 68 rushing yards per game over their last five games, and only 77 per game when the big run is included. Take the under with Hill with your NFL picks this week, because the game script doesn’t have a third big game from him in a row.

NFL Picks: UNDER 55.5 (-115) at bet365

 

Sam Bradford O/U 237.5 Passing Yards
A week after beating the Patriots and keeping their NFC East playoff hopes alive, the Eagles are at home this week against the Bills, and are favorites once again. While it seems like the sportsbooks are hoping some of the squares believe in an Eagles turnaround, I am fading that notion this week in the form of a Sam Bradford passing yards prop from bet365. Last week Sam Bradford only threw for 120 yards on 24 attempts, and he hasn’t even thrown the ball 50 times in his last two games. The Eagles and Chip Kelly have relegated him to being a game manager, because in their wins this season, Bradford is averaging less than 35 pass attempts per game. If the Eagles stay true to the formula this week against the Bills, I see Bradford going under this yards total. He would have cashed the under on this prop in three of his last four games, and if his stats stay true to his season so far, he would need about 40 or more pass attempts to reach the over in this one.

NFL Picks: UNDER 237.5 (-120)

 

Benjamin Watson O/U 50.5 Receiving Yards
Finally this week is Benjamin Watson, who would normally not be on my radar if it weren’t for all of the Brandin Cooks drama this week. News broke earlier in the week that Cooks had suffered a concussion and he would be questionable to play this week, but now word Friday has Cooks not suffering a concussion, and participating in parts of practice. NFL odds makers are not sure what is going on in New Orleans, but if Cooks is any sort of limited, Watson could be in line for a big game. He has almost become the Saints second option in the passing game, and the veteran has the ability to have big games. This season Watson has two games of 100 or more receiving yards, and in his last two games he has seen 17 targets and eight receptions. The Bucs’ defense hasn’t been bad against tight ends this season, but in what could be a shoot out, I like Watson to see double-digit targets and more than 50 receiving yards.

NFL Picks: OVER 50.5 (-115)