Player Props That Can Add Betting Value to Your Week 12 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, November 28, 2015 10:47 PM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 28, 2015 10:47 PM GMT

We are quickly heading down the stretch of this NFL season, and the time is now for some of these teams to make their move towards the playoffs. With that in mind, there are some nice NFL Props from bet365 sportsbook this week, and I have found three player props to surely add to your bankroll. 

Chris Johnson O/U 80.5 Rushing Yards
There are a lot of teams that likely feel pretty stupid about not grabbing Chris Johnson when they had the chance either this offseason or after the season started. The veteran back from East Carolina is having a resurgent year under Bruce Arians and the Cardinals, and this week the Cardinals get a chance to add to their win total against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL, the 49ers. Teams have run on them all season and it likely won’t stop with the three-headed rushing monster in Arizona. Johnson has been getting a heavy workload this season for a tailback that is already in his eighth NFL season. He has received 73 carries in his last three games, which amounts to nearly 40 percent of his workload for the year in just three games.

Granted there was a bye after the first of the three games, but Johnson has only averaged 3.1 yards per carry combined in those three games, and even against the Niners, if the Cardinals get out to an early lead, it might be the Andre Ellington and David Johnson show. There is no need for the Cardinals to wear out Johnson in a game where the Cards are already a 10-point road favorite on the NFL odds board. I expect 17-18 carries for Johnson, but he would need to average nearly 4.5 yards per carry to go over his yards total if that happens.

NFL Pick: UNDER 80.5 (-115) at bet365

 

Phillip Rivers O/U 290.5 Passing Yards
This line somewhat confuses me, but with the Chargers and Jaguars hooking up this week, Philip Rivers and Blake Bortles might be involved in the highest scoring game of the week. With one of the higher Week 12 totals, and with a need to pass the ball a lot, the Chargers and Rivers might have to throw the ball 45 times this week. With the volume at that level, a total this much less than 300 yards is a really good over value.

Jacksonville’s passing defense is still in the lower half of the league in terms of volume of passing yards given up this season, and while Rivers has been playing with a makeshift receiving core at times, it looks like Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd are set to play this week, which adds a ton to Rivers’ value here. At a price of -110 for the over, it’s hard not to see Rivers getting to the 300-yard passing mark this week, so take the over with your NFL picks at bet365.

NFL Picks: OVER 290.5 (-110)

 

Brandon Marshall O/U 74.5 Receiving Yards
The Jets have been an offense full of comeback stories, and while Brandon Marshall isn’t necessarily a comeback story because he has always been pretty good, after a somewhat down final year in Chicago, and after getting traded for virtually nothing, Marshall has put up top wide receiver numbers in an offense that wasn’t supposed to be that good. All that changed under Ryan Fitzpatrick, and this week the Jets get to go up against a poor Dolphins pass defense at home. However, in the last two weeks Marshall hasn’t played that great, catching only eight of his 20 targets. Despite this, Marshall is facing a Miami team giving up nearly eight yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, so with a yards total of less than 75 yards, I’m banking on him hauling in a few more of those targets this week.

NFL Picks: OVER 74.5 (-110)

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