It’s once again time to load up the player prop picks from bet365 in an attempt to make some profit this weekend, and once again I have three plays that should be great adds to your NFL picks for Week 10.
DeMarco Murray O/U 82.5 Rushing Yards
After the slowest start of his career, the Eagles have finally figured out that giving the ball to DeMarco Murray 20 times per game is probably a good idea. In the Eagles’ last four games, Murray has touched the ball on average 20 times per contest, and the Eagles are 3-1 SU. Sure, there could be a coincidence there, but it could also mean that Chip Kelly is finally wising up on how to use his star tailback. This week, Murray’s usage is going to be dependent on game flow, because while the Dolphins have one of the poorest run defenses in the entire NFL, if the Eagles fall behind, they could easily abandon the run and move towards throwing the ball 40 times per game. However, with how bad Miami has played against the run (they gave up over 260 rush yards to the Bills in their last game) I don’t see how Murray doesn’t get above his yards total this week. While some of my projections have him slightly below 82 yards this week, all he needs is a few 10-12 yard runs to get above this total.
NFL Pick: OVER 82.5 rush yards (-130) at bet365
Julian Edelman O/U 80.5 Receiving Yards
Since the return of Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman’s targets have started to drop. He has been below ten targets in most of the Patriots’ last three or four games, but this week against the Giants should be the week the Patriots break back out the passing game. Even though this is a large total on the NFL odds board and I think the game might go under, Edelman has the ability to hurt the Giants in a lot of ways this week, and I see Tom Brady and company utilizing him fully. While Edelman has seen only about 50 yards per game in three of his last four games, the Patriots will almost certainly have to throw more this week in order to beat the Giants. If the Patriots throw the ball upwards of 40 times this week, I can’t see how Edelman doesn’t get above his yards total. He burned us last week, but hopefully that was a one-time occurrence. Take the over.
NFL Pick: OVER 80.5 receiving yards (-125) at bet365
Alex Smith O/U 225.5 Passing Yards
The Chiefs have a make or break game this week against their divisional rivals the Broncos, and while most would think that would mean Alex Smith has to throw the ball a lot more this week, I doubt he has much success even if he does have to put the ball in the air 40 times. Smith has been much better on the road passing the football, but it has been out of necessity because the Chiefs were trailing in most of them. While they are on the road this week, the Broncos have the best pass defense in the NFL, and with no passing game, the Chiefs will likely still falter this week. Denver is giving up only 181 passing yards per game through the halfway point, and against a lackluster Chiefs team, look for Smith to go under the total with your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: UNDER 225.5 pass yards (-110) at bet365