Our player prop picks have been pretty successful this season through five weeks, and I am back once again for Week 6 to bring you my best player props from bet365. The amount of value available is very good this week, and I have three plays that all look like winnable NFL picks.
Aaron Rodgers O/U 265.5 Pass Yards
I completely understand why Aaron Rodgers has such a low yards total this week. Despite being at home, through five weeks the Chargers are giving up big yards on the ground. That means it may be a day to give Eddie Lacy a bunch of touches on the ground. However, even though San Diego’s secondary isn’t bad, it isn’t especially good either. Their numbers are so good because teams have been running the ball all over them. In five games the Chargers have given up 618 yards on the ground, which is good for the second most outside of Cleveland. Running backs are also averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the Chargers this season, but that doesn’t mean Rodgers won’t get his. If anything the Packers might establish the pass first to open things up for the run game, and as long as they don’t go up by 20 points in the first half, Rodgers should still get close enough to cash the over on this one. I see Rodgers at just under 290 passing yards this week, which is more than enough for the over from bet365.
NFL Pick: OVER 265.5 pass yards (no current price available)
Chris Ivory O/U 87.5 Rushing Yards
Chris Ivory has been a monster for the Jets this season. He is picking up yards in bunches, he has a burst back that we haven’t seen in a while, and he is running behind a good offensive line. However, all that being said, the Jets are going up against the Redskins’ tough run defense this week, and while I do think New York will feed the ball to Ivory, he is going to need anywhere between 20-25 carries to get above 87 yards this week. I’m not sure he can get that kind of volume and success against Washington. Outside of Devonta Freeman (who looks like he is not human right now) who gashed the Redskins for 153 yards by himself last week, in their other four other games the opposing team’s rushing leader never had more than 53 yards. I could see Ivory getting close to 80 yards in this game and a touchdown, but 88 is asking a lot against this very stout defense up front. Look to the under for your NFL picks for this one.
NFL Pick: UNDER 87.5 (-120)
Marquees Wilson O/U 61.5 Receiving Yards
This one is almost a no brainer to me. The second we hear confirmation that Alshon Jeffrey and Eddie Royal are going to play (both have practiced at least limitedly this week) the under on this one is a great play on the NFL odds board. Even if Royal gives up some of his snaps after Wilson’s good showing last week in the Bears’ win, Wilson will still be the fourth option on offense at best, and that may be asking a lot from him. Wilson is a good receiver that the Chicago Bears have high hopes for, and even though he would have cashed the over in his last two games, if Jeffrey and Royal are back this week, Wilson may not see the field as much.
NFL Pick: UNDER 61.5 (-130)