Play Packers vs. Vikings 'Under' 46 With Your Week 11 NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Saturday, November 21, 2015 5:56 PM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 5:56 PM GMT

The L10 meetings in the Minnesota Vikings-Green Bay Packers series has seen 5 Overs and 5 Unders. So let’s dive in and come up with a logical Totals NFL pick or two from our findings.

Trends will have to be thrown out the window here and this one will have to be examined from where these teams are at emotionally as well as forecasting both squads' Offensive game plans for this massive NFC North contest at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Sunday.

 

Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 11—Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Where: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

When: Sunday, November 22, 2015

Time: 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST

TV: CBS, Directv 712, NFL RedZone

Satellite Radio: SiriusXM Packers—SIRI 93 (Internet 811), Vikings—SIRI 82 (Internet 817)

Weather: Mainly Sunny, 35°, SW 12 mph, 50% Humidity

Point Spread Range: Pick ’Em to Vikings -1 -108 (Heritage)

Current Low Total in Marketplace: 44½ (Many places)

Consensus Total in Marketplace: 44½ and 45

Current High Total in Marketplace: 45 (Many places)

Alternate Total: Under 45½ -115, Over 45½ -105 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Under 46 -125, Over 46 +100 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Under 46½ -133, Over 46½ +105 (bet365)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Vikings (7-2 SU) have been the strongest Under team in the NFL to date, going 1-7-1 ATS O/U heading in here while Green Bay (6-3 SU) has also been a very strong Under team this Regular Season with a 3-6 O/U Totals ATS mark. Why? Obviously the Totals numbers have been set a bit too high in Green Bay and Minnesota games and the Packers have been without prolific WR Jordy Nelson all year, QB Aaron Rodgers (Shoulder) has been hobbled and RB Eddie Lacy has been nonexistent and replaced by James Starks in the Packers (10/1 to win Super Bowl, bet365) backfield while the Vikings (20/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) run the ball a lot with RB Adrian Peterson, have a game-managing type QB in Bridgewater and have a very good, improving and underrated Defense (17.1 ppg, #2 in NFL). At Home, Vikings Unders are 4-0 with Totals of 42, 45, 26 and 39 points being scored in those 4 contests at TCF Bank Stadium (38.0 ppg average) while 1st Quarters in Minnesota’s four Home games have seen scores of 7-0 (Lions), 3-0 (Chargers), 3-0 (Chiefs) and 10-6 (Rams), making Vikings 1st Quarter Unders 3-1 ATS at Home (NFL Odds: 1st Quarter 7½, Over -110, Under -125, Paddy Power).

In such a big NFC North game, with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers coming in hobbled and the cheeseheads needing the Win so much, we expect cautiousness and feeling out for the first 15 minutes. Plus it will be really, really Cold at TCF Bank Stadium (FieldTurf) on Sunday. Here are the L10 scores between the Packers as we try to see if there is a distinct Trend, but keeping in mind these are two very different teams than all these past years and that this is a particular spot in the season schedule where a Loss would be very hard on the Packers believe it or not, who would be suffering their 4th straight Loss, and falling to 6-4 with a setback and into Wild Card talk territory. That kind of Fear often brings out the best in quality NFL teams.

 

Final Scores in Last 10 Meetings in Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings
2014—Packers 24 @ Vikings 21 Total—49½ Result—Under

2014—@Packers 42 Vikings 10 Total—46½ Result—Over

2013—@ Packers 26 Vikings 26, OT Total—44½ Result—Over

2013—Packers 44 @ Vikings 31 Total—47½ Result—Under

2012—@ Packers 24 Vikings 10 Total—44 Result—Under (NFC Playoffs)

2012—@ Vikings 37 Packers 34 Total—45½ Result—Over (HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis)

2012—@ Packers 23 Vikings 14 Total—47 Result—Under

2011—@ Packers 45 Vikings 7 Total—49½ Result—Over

2011—Packers 33 @ Vikings 27 Total—36½ Result—Over(HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis)

2010—Packers 31 @ Vikings 3 Total—44½ Result—Under (HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis)

 

Recent Relevant Series Trends and Realistic Game Expectations
Last year when these Upper Midwestern rivals locked horns, the Packers won here at TCF Bank Stadium, 24-21 in a game which went Under the posted Total of 49½ by 4½ points and with Nelson out, Lacy unproductive and replaced by Starks, and Rodgers nursing a bum throwing shoulder heading in, this one may be more of a chess match with Green Bay really needing the Win in Minneapolis. The Over is 8-3 ATS the L11 Packers games against the NFC North while the Under is 7-1 ATS the L8 Vikings games inter-division. But the big Trend here is the Over being 11-4 ATS the L15 meetings in this series, although this seems like a good Under spot with so much on the line and both teams strongly trending toward the Under (13-4-1 ATS) so far this Regular Season. And, as mentioned, the Weather looks like it could be really chilly at TCF Bank Stadium on Sunday afternoon with a forecasted High temperature of 35° and mild Winds (SW 12 mph) in Minneapolis in late November.

Expect the Vikings to try to establish the ground game and wear down the Green Bay Defense with heavy doses of RB Peterson (961 yards, expect him to top 1,000 for the season in this game) which will eat up big chunks of clock. Green Bay will look to dink and dunk and mostly not get Rodgers hurt and anyone who watched last Sunday’s upset to the Lions could see the Packers signal caller was less than 100% and was bothered physically late in the game. This should be close all the way and evolve into a FG-type shootout between Minnesota’s Blair Walsh (22/26 FGs)—who has already won two games on last-minute FGs—and Green Bay’s Mason Crosby (12/14). This game will probably make for very good gridiron theater, with these specific players and teams, being outside in the cold and with so much at stake in the division. The Packers should be on their best behavior and will expect their Defense to shine on Sunday as we place our NFL picks.

Predicted Final Score: Green Bay Packers 23 Minnesota Vikings 16

NFL Picks: Under 46 -125 at bet365, 1st Quarter Under 7½ -125 at PaddyPower

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