Place your Week 10 NFL Pick on 'Under' for Chiefs vs. Bills

Swinging Johnson

Monday, November 3, 2014 7:41 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 7:41 PM GMT

Before placing your Week 10 NFL picks, know that as the Chiefs invade Ralph Wilson Stadium notching victories in five of their last six, the Bills return from their bye week winning two of their last three.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS)
The Chiefs did exactly what all the squares thought they would do and that is trounce the lackluster Jets in front of a raucous Arrowhead Stadium last week. When the dust settled Kansas City won by a rather effortless 24-10 margin and even the 10 point handicap couldn’t inhibit them from covering the NFL odds in this one. The Chiefs have been a veritable ATM for those who have included them in their NFL picks this season raining money on their backers in six of eight contests thus far. They were included them as one of three NFL picks in my weekly Bust Your Bookie article and that proved to be good for four units.

Alex Smith may not be the most accomplished or talented quarterback in the NFL tossing for only 211.5 yards per game (ranked 30th), 12th in quarterback rating among starters, and 21st in attempts. However, he is 8th in completion percentage and has only four picks on the season to go along with 11 TD’s. He is a smooth operator under center and allows the offense to run within the system rather than trying to alter it for his own purposes. The Chiefs are a run-first offense and use the limitless talents of Jamaal Charles to spearhead the ground-and-pound setting up Smith for a dink and dunk aerial attack to move the chains. Defensively KC boasts the top passing defense but the 19th ranked run stop unit.

 

Buffalo Bills (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)
The Bills enjoyed their bye week off of a 43-23 drubbing of the NY Jets that saw them not only throttle their hosts but cash as an underdog of three points with a straight up money line winner in NFL odds. Perhaps the biggest change since the beginning of the season has come under center. Former Bears/Broncos signal caller Kyle Orton has been a boon to the Bills offense. He has guided them to three of four victories and has covered half of those games with respect to the NFL odds on each.

Buffalo may have a 5-3 record midway through the 2014 NFL season but they do not excel in any one area. The Bills are ranked 19th in passing yards, 23rd in rushing yards, 13th against the pass and 8th against the run. Clearly their defense has carried the day for them this season but it is Kyle Orton’s command of the offense since replacing EJ Manuel that has given Buffalo fans hope. His fourth-quarter 87.9 QBR is tops in the league as is his 132.5 quarterback rating. Orton has also increased Buffalo’s ability to go deep as evidenced by Orton’s third-best completion percentage on balls thrown 15 yards or longer. EJ Manuel was ranked 25th in that category before he gave way to the veteran Orton.

 

Betting Verdict
The way the Chiefs have been rolling lately and the fact that they continue to cover the NFL odds that the bookmakers are offering inclines me to believe there must be a regression to the mean. They won’t keep covering forever and though Buffalo is not a top echelon team they are certainly capable of delivering big games against virtually any team in the league. Yet the Chiefs are multidimensional and bring a rugged defense into Buffalo.

As of this Monday morning writing the visiting Chiefs are 1 ½ point betting favorites in NFL odds but that number does nothing to sway me one way or the other. I believe this will be a defensive struggle and the winner will be decided by which team limits their turnovers. You might as well throw a dart even though KC is clearly the better team but Buffalo is coming off a bye and may be underestimated by the Chiefs. The 'under' looks like the right NFL pick here boys and girls.

Free NFL Pick: Bet Under 42 at Pinnacle

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