Would you bet a team in the modern NFL could win its division prior to the midway point of the season? That could be the case for the Steelers, as they play five of their six AFC North clashes before Week 10.
Below you will find the Steelers’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.
2017 SU Record: 13-3 (6.1 avg. margin)
2017 ATS Record: 7-9 (0.3 avg. margin)
2017 Average Line: -5.8
2017 Win Total: 10.5 (-150)
2018 Win Total (pre-schedule): 10.5 (+100)
2018 Strength of Schedule: T-25, opponents were 122-134 (.477)
Three Games to Back ATS
@Bengals Week 3, Week 17
Big Ben rules the Bengals, going 23-7 SU and 21-9 ATS in his career. The six-time Pro Bowler averages 7.5 yard per pass and 1.4 touchdowns, leading the Steelers to 24.6 points per game. Expect the Week 17 matchup will provide some sort of playoff implications; added motivation for another dominant performance. The division is weak, too, with the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals combining for 20 expected victories in pre-scheduled win totals released by 5Dimes.
Browns, Week 8
Roethlisberger is 21-1 SU and 13-8-1 ATS all-time as the betting favorite against the Browns. No chance Cleveland stays close with the Steelers coming off the bye. In fact, Big Ben is 10-3-1 ATS when resting for six days or more in this spot. The Steelers have won by double digits in 11 of the 14 contests.
Three Games to Fade ATS
@Broncos, Week 12 & @Raiders, Week 14
Outside of their division, the Steelers struggle to top the number when road chalk against AFC competition. With Roethlisberger under center, they are 15-12 SU and 8-19 ATS all-time. Pittsburgh fails to cover a -5.9 average line by 3.7 points per game. When gifting more than a field goal on the NFL oddsboard, the record dips to 5-14 ATS. Advance lines will pit the Steelers favorites for both of their AFC West away tests. Beware.
@Saints, Week 16
Since defensive mastermind Dick LeBeau left the Steelers staff in 2014, the team struggles most against teams that air it out. Pittsburgh is 6-6 SU and 3-8-1 ATS facing teams that accrued 260 passing yards or more per game the previous season. When it goes off an underdog or short-priced favorite of less than 5 points, the team is winless and 1-5 ATS, allowing 27.0 points per game. This will likely be the conditions when the Steelers and Saints clash in the Superdome in Week 16.
Trap Game Potential
@Jaguars, Week 11
Whether the Jags regress or not this season, plenty of signals point to the Steelers having a tough outing in this matchup. For one, Roethlisberger is 3-10 SU and ATS in his career against opponents that own an average scoring margin greater than 8.5 points the prior season. Including the playoffs, Jacksonville earned a 9.3 rate. Secondly, the star quarterback is 4-5 SU and 2-6-1 ATS all-time versus the franchise, averaging just 19.9 points per game. Pittsburgh has been favored for all of two of the meetings. Don't get too wrapped up in some Steelers revenge angle.