Pick Underdog Chiefs vs. Chargers for Week 7 NFL Betting

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 17, 2014 5:24 PM GMT

Just as easily, this game between the Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers could also have been termed our NFL Coaching Play of the Year. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
This contest could just as easily been termed my PERCEPTION/REALITY Play of the Day.  For there are very few out there who will line up with 2-3 SU Kansas City per NFL odds as a miniscule 4 point pup against 5-1 SU ATS San Diego. 

Just as easily, this game could also have been termed our NFL Coaching Play of the Year.  For the tendencies of Andy Reid speak loudly to this handicap.  The Chiefs have had a week of rest following their 22-17 hard fought road loss at San Francisco.  Depending on your line, that could well have been the Chiefs 4thconsecutive cover. The previous 2 games for KC, included a 41-14 home field whipping of New England, preceded by a 34-15 trouncing of the Dolphins in Miami. It means KC has now covered all 3 road games this season, extending the record of HC Reid to 10-1 ATS in regular season road games.  Reid is also a lofty 16-2 SU, 13-5 ATS with rest.  In addition, Reid is 15-4 ATS in Division games when his teams are off a loss. In short, this is a prime play for the Chiefs under their veteran mentor.  No doubt that the Chargers are a hot team, winning 5 straight games by a combined score of 147-73.  But, they were clearly not at their best at a 31-28 survival at Oakland last week. Nonetheless, the Chargers have been dominant on this field, winning by a combined score of 94-35 in going 3-0 SU ATS. As a result of their recent success, the “triple 30 offensive system” works against them in this game.  As the Chargers are 0-4 ATS on this field after scoring 30 or more points in 3 consecutive games.  San Diego is a prime example of my “Run to the Bank” theory, outlined in an article on these pages last week.  Briefly stated, playing on any team who runs the ball for 30 or more times in a game (if their opponent does not) and against any team who runs the ball for 21 or less times in a game (if their opponent does not) leads to over 80% pointspread winners.  Such is the case for the San Diego team, who has averaged 32 running plays per game (only averaging 93/2.9) while allowing the opposition to run the ball an average of only 21 times, resulting in their 5-1 ATS (83%) mark.  Finally, must not ignore the fact that the Chargers’ success, in which they have beaten the line by a net 54 points, may largely be a function of a +7 net TO margin. Meanwhile, it is suggested that the Chiefs still have a solid upside for your NFL picks, as they are 4-1 ATS with a +38 AFP, despite a -3 net TO margin. 

Let’s look for a TO/turnaround, a regression to the norm by a San Diego offense, and continuing success by HC Reid in his premier roles for this outright UNDERDOG winner in this Divisional rivalry.

NFL pick: Kansas City at 5Dimes

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