Pick Under as Eagles vs. Colts Sees Largest Total in Week 2

Jason Lake

Friday, September 12, 2014 3:42 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 12, 2014 3:42 PM UTC

Chip Kelly brought his up-tempo offense to the Eagles last year, and the ‘over’ did a pretty good job against the NFL odds. But Monday night’s total versus the Indianapolis Colts is the highest one on the board.

Jason’s Record after Week 1: 1-4 ATS, 0-1 Totals

Profit: Minus-6.6 units

If you’re looking for a great way to improve your NFL picks, here’s one for you: make College Football picks. Think about how well prepared you’ll be at the start of the NFL season – you’ll be the one who knows about the latest crop of rookies and what they bring to the table. And when we say rookies here, we’re talking about both players and coaches coming out of the college ranks. Each one brings a body of work with him to the big leagues.

Chip Kelly’s work with the Oregon Ducks was especially noteworthy. Kelly’s version of the spread offense led the Ducks to four BCS bowl games in his four seasons as head coach. His résumé was strong enough that the Philadelphia Eagles gave Kelly effective GM powers when they hired him last year to replace Andy Reid. So far, so good: The Eagles are your defending NFC East champions, and their offense is a thing of beauty. We’ll see it on display this Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) when the Eagles visit the Indianapolis Colts. This matchup has the fattest of all the Week 2 totals at 53.5 points, up from 52.5 at the open.


Extreme Championship Betting
We could easily spend the rest of this column heaping praise on Kelly, but that would be a waste of precious bandwidth. Everyone’s on the Philly train now. Well, that train left the station a while ago. Early adopters who understood Kelly’s potential were able to cash in big-time last year, riding the 'over' to a 5-1 record at the start of the 2013 regular season. Since then? The 'under' is 7-5, including Philadelphia’s 26-24 Wild Card loss to the New Orleans Saints (under 54.5).

We’ve been banging the drum about how scoring is up in the NFL, and how the 'over' has become the default bet of choice, at least for now. But this will be the third time in three games that we’re recommending the 'under.' It’s partly because the early-bird football betting value has flown out the window, and it’s partly because Monday night’s total is already in the mid-50s. Extreme totals are easy betting targets. The more extreme they get, the more likely the 'under' is to get paid.


Wade Into You
Then there’s that troublesome Philly O-line. We touched on this in our Monday Night Football ATS preview; the Eagles front five missed zero man-games in 2013, but they couldn’t get through 60 minutes this year before losing both LG Evan Mathis (knee) and RT Allen Barbre (ankle). Mathis was officially put on temporary injured reserve and won’t be back until Week 10 at the earliest. Barbre is on full-time IR and done for the season. Don’t forget, Barbre was already filling in for suspended starter Lane Johnson (PEDs).

Reinforcements are coming. Dennis Kelly (no relation to Chip that we know of) is expected to start at left guard after he was inactive in Week 1. Former Pro Bowl guard Wade Smith also signed with the club on Tuesday; however, Smith failed to make the Seattle Seahawks out of camp this year, which is noteworthy given that Seattle’s offensive line isn’t quite as Super as the rest of the Super Bowl champions.

Philly’s makeshift line held up last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, allowing the Eagles to score 27 second-half points – the defense also put up a TD – in a 34-17 victory (over 49). It will literally take more than that to eclipse Monday night’s total against the Colts.

Free NFL Pick: Put one unit on 'under 53' (+100) at Pinnacle

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