Pick Packers Spread vs. Bears for Week 4 NFL Betting

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 8:31 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 23, 2014 8:31 PM GMT

After an opening day loss the Bears have scored two consecutive wins on the road while the Packers are reeling from a 1-2 start but upon reviewing the NFL odds where is the betting value between these two NFC North rivals?

Green Bay Packers (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS)
The Packers traveled to Detroit last Sunday and the betting public clearly favored Green Bay by driving the line down from the Lions -2 ½ in NFL odds to as low as -1 in many offshore shops.  But the sharps, the squares or whoever drove that line down, were on the wrong side as the Lions defense ruled the day and smothered Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.  When the dust settled, Rodgers had thrown for only 162 yards and his team amassed a mere 223 yards of total offense in a 19-7 loss.

But if you are looking for a silver lining perhaps you could focus on Detroit’s swarming defense that would have given any team in the league a world of problems on that given Sunday and tip your cap to Green Bay’s defense who kept Matthew Stafford/Calvin Johnson connection off the scoreboard and had a pair of picks in the process.  Nine of the 19 points scored by Detroit was courtesy of their opportunistic defense and the only lapse in Green Bay’s defense came on a 26-yard scamper into the endzone by Reggie Bush.  The Packers enter this game ranked 21st in passing and 27th in rushing while their defense is a woeful 30th of 32 defending the run but an impressive 6th in the NFL against the pass, holding opponents to 198.3 yards though the air.

 

Chicago Bears (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Jay Cutler passed for two touchdowns, both targeted to tight end Martellus Bennett, and Ryan Mundy returned a pick-six 45 yards into the endzone as the Chicago Bears improved to 2-1 with a hard fought 27-19 win over the Jets on Monday night.  This game initially opened with the hometown Jets favored by as much as 2 ½ points but the betting public nudged the line to a pick’em before it ultimately bounced back to New York being installed as 1 ½ point favorites in NFL odds. 

The Bears vaulted to a 14-0 lead last night before the Jets mounted a comeback but Chicago had three sacks, two interceptions, one recovered fumble and put Jets quarterback under duress throughout the game.  It was a solid effort for a team that continues to struggle mightily in the run game.  Ranked dead last in the league for rushing yards, Matt Forte was held to 33 rushing yards against the Jets and limited to only 21 yards on the ground the week before in the Bears upset victory over the 49’ers as seven-point road dogs in NFL odds.  He is averaging only 0.5 rushing yards before contact per carry.

 

Free NFL Pick
Chicago is currently installed as a one-point favorite in NFL odds over Green Bay and that illustrates just how head scratching this matchup really is headed into Week 4 of the young season.  Both defenses played well last week while Aaron Rodgers struggled due to the fierce rushing attack of the Lions.  The truth is Rodgers looked more like a backup than the All-Pro that he is, underthrowing five passes with the most glaring being a wide open Jordy Nelson who had the endzone in his sights on their last possession.

For the stat geeks, here are a few to consider:

Green Bay is 32-13 straight up against Chicago since 1992.

Green Bay is 28-16-1 ATS against Chicago since 1992.

Green Bay is 3-1 SU and ATS over Chicago over the last three seasons.

Green Bay is 2-0 SU and ATS over Chicago when playing in Chicago over the last three seasons.

Here’s the deal.  The Packers fell victim to a top rated defense in Week 1 on the road in Seattle as 4 ½-point underdogs.  In Week 2 they rebounded with a 31-24 home victory over the Jets as 7-point home favorites.  Last week they encountered a relentless Lions defense that gave Rodgers no safe harbor and disrupted the offense from the opening whistle. 

However, the Green Bay defense looked sound last week and I see the potential for them causing some real issues as Jay Cutler is prone to forcing the ball when the opposition defense gets tough.  Conversely, Rodgers should rebound nicely after an unusual subpar performance last week.  Oh, and as far as Green Bay’s inability to stop the run, don’t worry about it.  Forte and the Bears ground attack have been anemic and won’t do much damage even against the Packers porous run stop unit.

NFL Pick: Play the Packers +1 at 5Dimes as one of your NFL picks this weekend.

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